The Trading Floor - July 2018

Discussion in 'The Trading Floor' started by Amator, Jun 30, 2018.


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  1. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  2. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    Prepare for the biggest stock-market selloff in months, Morgan Stanley warns
    Published: July 31, 2018 3:51 a.m. ET

    The U.S. stock market has been partying all throughout July, and a hangover is coming.

    That is according to analysts at Morgan Stanley, who said that Wall Street’s rally is showing signs of “exhaustion,” and that with major positive catalysts for trading now in the rearview mirror, there’s little that could continue to propel equities higher.

    “With Amazon’s strong quarter out of the way, and a very strong 2Q GDP number on the tape, investors were finally faced with the proverbial question of ’what do I have to look forward to now?’ The selling started slowly, built steadily, and left the biggest winners of the year down the most. The bottom line for us is that we think the selling has just begun and this correction will be biggest since the one we experienced in February,” the investment bank wrote to clients.

    The decline “could very well have a greater negative impact on the average portfolio if it’s centered on tech, consumer discretionary and small-caps, as we expect.”

    A correction is technically defined as a decline of at least 10% from a recent peak. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.57% and the S&P 500SPX, -0.58% corrected in early February, on concerns that inflation was returning to markets. While the Dow remains in correction territory—meaning it hasn’t yet risen 10% from its low of the pullback—the S&P exited just last week, following its longest stint in correction territory since 1984. The Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP, -1.39% never fell into correction.

    Equities have done well of late, with the Dow up 4.3% in July. The S&P 500 has gained 3.1% in the month while the Nasdaq has advanced 1.6%, hitting multiple records along the way, though it has stumbled badly in the past three sessions.

    Much of the rally has come on the second-quarter earnings season, which has both shown strong growth and featured a high number of companies topping analyst expectations. While there were some high-profile disappointments, including from Netflix Inc. NFLX, -5.70% and Facebook Inc. FB, +0.06% —which suffered its biggest one-day drop ever after its results—market participants have generally looked past them.

    “We must admit, the market sent some misleading signals over the last few weeks by limiting the damage to the broad indices when Netflix and Facebook missed. We believe this simply led to an even greater false sense of security in the market,” wrote the team of Morgan Stanley analysts, led by Michael Wilson, the firm’s chief U.S. equity strategist. Both Facebook and Netflix’s shares fell into bear-market territory on Monday, defined as a drop of at least 20% from a recent peak.

    The firm forecast “a rolling bear market,” during which “every sector in the S&P 500 has gone through a significant derating” with the exception of tech and consumer discretionary. Those two sectors have contributed the bulk of the market’s advance in 2018; tech has risen 12.5% while the discretionary sector—boosted by Amazon and Netflix, both of which are up more than 50% year-to-date—is up 12.8%.

    That these two industry groups haven’t fallen much doesn’t mean they won’t, Morgan Stanley warned.

    “While it is possible tech and consumer discretionary stocks won’t experience the derating witnessed in other cyclical sectors, we think it is unlikely and are only emboldened by the misses from Facebook and Netflix and the price action last week,” they said.

    “We recognize that money can also move from these sectors to others thereby leaving the S&P 500 around current levels rather than falling 10% as we expect,” they said.
     
  3. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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  4. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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  5. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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  6. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (July 31): OCBC Investment Research is maintaining “neutral” on Singapore REITs (S-REITs) with a weaker outlook for the hospitality sub-sector, which has prompted a pushback in expectations for a pick-up in Singapore hotel RevPAR this year to early 2019.

    In a Tuesday report, lead analyst Andy Wong says he finds hospitality REITs less attractive than before in terms of valuations, given the relatively muted DPU growth outlook for 2H18 as well as the rising interest rate environment.

    The analyst generally recommends seeking more defensive shelter, specifically in trusts with strong balance sheets, long WALEs and exposure to more resilient sectors such as suburban retail.

    Defensive names which investors may consider switching into include Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT), Frasers Logistics & Industrial Trust (FLT), which are both rated “buy” with fair values of $2.49 and $1.21, respectively.

    In particular, Wong prefers FCT for its healthy aggregate leverage and DPU growth, which he believes has been buffered by its largest malls. He also likes FLT for its healthy WALE and diversified income streams after acquiring a portfolio of 21 assets from its key logistics markets, Germany and the Netherlands.

    Further, the analyst highlights Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MNACT) as another defensive REIT whose retail asset in Hong Kong, Festival Walk, has proven resilience over the years even during the last Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The trust has been rated “buy” with a fair value estimate of $1.42.

    He also likes Keppel DC REIT (KDC REIT), rated “buy” with a fair value of $1.54, for its long WALE and ample debt headroom to fund inorganic growth ahead.

    Despite the lower expectations of hospitality REITs going forward, Wong favours Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT) most within the hospitality sub-sector, as he believes it stands to benefit from the low base effect of poor FY17 operational results.

    “Compared to its peers, FEHT posted a surprisingly strong 6.9% RevPAR increase on the back of better occupancy as well as higher ADRs,” he comments on the trust’s latest set of quarterly results.
     
  7. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Big Bird,

    She traded XD today. Dividend is 30 cts.
    For those who dont mind BUY & HOLD, she is at her SALE PRICE now.


    [​IMG]


    For Ascendas, she reached 2.77 yesterday which is a 6-Mth HIGH. But it was shortlived.
    Today's HIGH is 2.75.
    Now 2.73 : 2.74.
    This one looks like she is on her way down next.


    [​IMG]
     
  8. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  9. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (July 30): The manager of Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust (Ascendas REIT) reported 1Q18 DPU of 4.002 cents, 1.2% lower than the DPU of 4.049 cents declared a year ago.

    1Q18 net property income (NPI) rose by 3.8% y-o-y to $159.2 million mainly attributable to contributions from newly acquired properties, 100 Wickham Street and 108 Wickham Street in Brisbane, Australia, and a redeveloped property, 50 Kallang Avenue in Singapore.

    Lower property operating expenses also contributed to the higher NPI as property tax expense were reduced due to retrospective downward revisions in the annual value of certain properties.

    However, amount available for distribution declined by 1.0% y-o-y to $117.3 million as a result of a one-off distribution made in 1Q17 relating to the non-deductibility of certain upfront financing fees incurred in FY11/12.

    Excluding one-off distribution in 1Q17 relating to the non-deductibility of certain upfront financing fees incurred in FY11/12, amount available for distribution would have increased by 4.1% y-o-y and DPU would have rose 4.0% y-o-y to 4.002 cents.

    Overall portfolio occupancy rate declined to 90.5% from 91.5% a quarter ago. The Singapore portfolio occupancy rate declined to 88.1% from 89.5% at end March, dragged down by the newly completed redevelopment at 20 Tuas Avenue 1, which was 51.1% occupied as at June 30. Non-renewals at SB Building and No. 31 International Business Park also contributed to the lower portfolio occupancy rate.

    The Australian portfolio maintained a high occupancy rate of 98.6% from 98.5% at end.

    Rental reversion of about +10.5% was achieved for renewed leases in multi-tenant buildings in Singapore during 1Q18.

    In its outlook, manager Ascendas Funds Management says although global trade and industrial production have strengthened, the escalating trade tensions between the US and China continue to be one of the key uncertainties surrounding the global outlook.

    Meanwhile, interest rates are widely expected to continue rising in the months ahead although the REIT is well positioned to mitigate the impact of interest rate increases and maintain an optimal financial position.
     
  10. sotong11

    sotong11 Well-Known Member

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    morning snipers
     
  11. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  12. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SGX reports FY2018 net profit of S$363 million
    FY2018 Financial Summary
     Revenue: S$845 million, up 5% from a year earlier
     Operating profit: S$425 million, up 6%
     Net profit: S$363 million, up 7%
     Earnings per share: 33.9 cents, up 7%
     Proposed final dividend: 15 cents per share, and total dividend of 30 cents per share for the year, up by 2 cents

    upload_2018-7-28_9-58-59.png
     
  13. sotong11

    sotong11 Well-Known Member

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    congrates... I queue but din get it. now thinking should chase down...
     
  14. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (July 27): DBS Vickers Securities is maintaining its “buy” call on Ascendas REIT (A-REIT) with an unchanged target price of $3 on news of the trust’s first foray into Europe with its plans to acquire a portfolio of 12 UK logistics properties for $373 million.

    In a Friday report, analyst Derek Tan says he sees the acquisition move as one that presents a “wealth of opportunities” for A-REIT to add to its portfolio inorganically without taking on too much “country risk”, due to the depth of market as well as the UK’s good transparency and rule of law.

    While Tan highlights that the post-cost yield of 5.22% appears to be “fairly tight” compared to secondary market transactions of about 6%, the analyst is of the view that the under-rented properties versus market rents suggests opportunities for upside in the longer term.

    Further, Tan believes the pound-denominated debt which the portfolio is expected to be funded by will act as a natural hedge against fluctuations of the pound versus SGD.

    The analyst particularly likes the acquisition target for its long weighted average lease expiry (WALE) and strong tenant credit, which he says should serve as a good entry into the UK with minimal income and capital risk.

    “The long WALE of 14.6 years is expected to increase [A-REIT’s] portfolio WALE to 4.4 years (from 4.2 years previously). The pro-forma impact of this acquisition is estimated to be c.1.2%,” notes Tan.

    “The [UK logistics] properties are strategically located key distribution centres and have good accessibility to major motorways such as the M1 and M6 and should enjoy strong tenant stickiness,” he adds.
     
  15. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (July 27): Singapore Airlines (SIA) shares fell by as much as 5.5% on Friday, their biggest one-day drop in over a year, after the carrier reported a lower than expected first quarter profit the day before, driven by a decline in airfares.

    Analysts were cutting their forecasts for the remainder of the year following a 3.2% decline in first-quarter passenger yields, a proxy for airfares, which bucked expectations for a rise that was seen in the broader global airline industry.

    "Passenger yields could remain under pressure given SIA Group's more aggressive capacity expansion this year, especially on long-haul routes to Europe and North America," said Corrine Png, CEO of transport research firm Crucial Perspective.

    Singapore Airlines shares fell by as much as 5.5% on Friday versus the broader local index that was 0.3% lower.

    The airline earned $140 million in the three months ended June 30, down 59% from a revised figure of $338 million a year before, it said after market on Thursday.

    The prior-year figure was restated due to accounting changes and had included $175 million of one-off benefits from changes to its frequent flyer programme accounting and compensation for aircraft delivery slots.

    Mohshin Aziz, an analyst at Maybank, said increased airport charges at the airline's Singapore hub from July 1 could further exacerbate pressure on yields, especially for short-haul flights.

    Yields at regional arm SilkAir fell by 10.3% in the first quarter. SilkAir faces stiff competition from budget carriers such as AirAsia Group Bhd and is poised to be merged into the parent brand after 2020.

    At the parent brand, viewed as a benchmark for full-service carriers in the region, yields fell by 1%, whereas DBS analyst Paul Yong said he had expected a "mild improvement". In the fourth quarter last year, yields at the Singapore Airlines brand rose by 1% after a long period of quarterly declines.

    Cargo yields rose by 9.9% during the first quarter, but volumes fell and Singapore Airlines warned the escalation of trade tensions could potentially have a longer-term impact on air cargo demand.
     
  16. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    SinkWell at 3.16 : 3.17.
    I SHORT at 3.18.
     
  17. sotong11

    sotong11 Well-Known Member

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    morning snipers..
     
  18. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  19. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (July 26): Ascendas REIT is expanding its footprint beyond Asia and Australia into Europe, through the proposed acquisition of a portfolio of 12 logistics properties located in the United Kingdom.

    The properties will be acquired from two third-party vendors, Oxenwood Catalina Midco Limited and Oxenwood Catalina II Midco for £207.27 million ($373.15 million).

    Completion is expected to take place in the third quarter of 2018.

    On completion of the acquisition, Ascendas Management (UK), a UK subsidiary of the sponsor of Ascendas REIT, Ascendas-Singbridge will provide Ascendas REIT with certain asset management services and other related services in respect of the properties.

    Located in established distribution centres with good connections to core urban areas, the properties are well-positioned to capitalise on the growing demand for supply chain and logistics services in the UK market, as a result of booming e-commerce activities.

    The proposed acquisition also provides Ascendas REIT an entry to UK logistics market, supported by Ascendas-Singbridge Group’s asset management capabilities, and will position Ascendas REIT strategically to strengthen its presence in other key UK locations.

    William Tay, Executive Director and CEO of Ascendas Funds Management (S), the manager of Ascendas REIT, says, “This acquisition is an important milestone as we continue to strengthen our franchise to meet the growth of Ascendas REIT. The investment presents an attractive and meaningful entry into the UK market. The portfolio has a long weighted average lease expiry (WALE) of 14.6 years and is largely comprised of freehold land. These are appealing attributes that will strengthen our existing portfolio.”
     
  20. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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