The Trading Floor - January 2017

Discussion in 'The Trading Floor' started by Amator, Dec 31, 2016.


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  1. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2017
  2. Kruz4ever

    Kruz4ever Well-Known Member

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    Good day snipers. Was busy pass few weeks that I have not trade anything yet.
     
  3. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  4. cfd

    cfd Well-Known Member

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  5. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Tomorrow if we find any stock which does not drop lower than today's low, those are the stocks
    which have bottomed out and will be the first to run when sentiments improve and the bull is back.
     
  6. cfd

    cfd Well-Known Member

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  7. koaladreaming

    koaladreaming Well-Known Member

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    Wishing All A Prosperous $$$ Year under the watch of the Yin Fire Rooster.

    Hearsay it is a good year for Equities as a yin fire year often boost peoples confidence about the economy, bringing good performance to the stock market. Particularly during the spring and summer seasons when the fire will drive up the stock market sky high. However, around August onward, there will be dramatic downturn in shares and stock market have to prepare for big disappointment in the second half of the year. Such phenomenon of crazy market in first half year and collapse in autumn happened in many previous yin fire years before, such as 1987, 1997, 2007. The bearish market may commence from around August 2017 and this time the impact can be long lasting as there will not be any support to fire element between 2018 to 2022.

    Note: The above view is for sharing and not meant to influence one's trading/investing decision to the stock market.
     
  8. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Yes, bro. LIke I have been promoting here... set aside more troops for BUY & HOLD and limit chicken run to 30% of capital.
    Then look for good blue chips which have fallen to their Low Tide to do BUY & HOLD or which have risen to their High Tide to do SHORT & HOLD.
    On top of that, to look for stocks which move in a more predictable way at certain times of the year or at certain parts of their market cycle and take
    up big positions in those stocks to capitalise on their moves. The strategy is to go in big when there are high probability trades and to scale down to
    chicken run size when the probabilities are lower.

    For me now, Big Bird is an ongoing play as her tidal cycle is huge and may take 6 to 9 months to run its full course. Whether I can catch all of her
    move is yet to be seen. But if I can catch a good enough portion of her tidal cycle to give me a decent haul of eggs is good enough for me.

    The next big play I am eyeing are my 4 Musketeer REITs. They are still quite a long way from their BUY ZONES. Having been bitten by them many
    times when I SHORTed them, I am inclined to play from the LONG side than SHORT. For LONG play, much patience is needed. Coz only if all 4 of
    them takes a dive to nearer their Last Low that I will have more courage to go in big. If they dont retrace deep enough and want to stage an upmove
    from a higher level, I will naturally dont feel as comfy to move in with a bulldozer to scoop in big heaps. Its like buying Big Bird in big lots at 9.60 to 9.90
    is easy. But to do the same thing when she is trading at 10.30 to 10.50 in the hope that she will rise towards 11.00 to 11.60 is really, really not so easy.
     
  9. sotong11

    sotong11 Well-Known Member

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    Congrates bro NB n sis lexanne...
     
  10. cfd

    cfd Well-Known Member

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    Congrats Bro! Let's continue to strife to fine tune our trading plans that they will serve us well in the coming days, coming weeks, coming months and coming years!!!
     
  11. oppa49

    oppa49 Well-Known Member

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    congrats sis !
     
  12. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    HUAT aaarrr !!!




    aa114.gif
     
  13. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Today marks the last trading for the month of January 2017.
    January Book Closing shows a healthy harvest of 29,824.41 eggs.
    This is really way beyond my expectation. And it happened becoz I miraculously
    found the bolas to do what I needed to do with Wilmar when it was time to do it.

    But this is not a complete picture of my journey.
    Unrealised paper losses stand at 15,762 rotten eggs and unrealised paper gains stand at 4746 unlaid eggs.
    Going forward into the month of February, I hope to be able to cover Wilmar (the reason for my paper losses) at the
    best price I can get and thereafter go LONG to recoup some or all of those losses. Of the 29,824.41 eggs laid in
    January, slightly more than 14,000 eggs came from Mother Hen Wilmar when I went LONG in her. If she is going
    to re-visit 4.00 and go higher, that will provide another window of opportunity to ride on her to bring in another
    truckload of eggs. The 4746 unlaid eggs come from Big Bird, a far cry from the 31,000 paper unlaid eggs she
    showed me last week. But I have faith in her to deliver the truckloads when this temporary storm blows over.
    Afterall, I did wait for at least 6 months to BUY & HOLD her at her LOW TIDE and having managed to do that,
    I should be glad that all I need to do now is to have faith in her and let the market do the rest of the work for me.
    This one... I throw back now, I will make less than 1 month's salary. But if I am patient, I can make 1 year's salary.
    I did the Maths already. Really 1 year's salary if I can wait till 10.50. And more if I can wait longer.

    HUAT ARRRRRRRR !!!
     
  14. lexanne

    lexanne Well-Known Member

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    Unjeeped OCBC at 9.39 for 11 bids.
     
  15. oppa49

    oppa49 Well-Known Member

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    STi recovering since 11.30am after hitting the bottom.
    upload_2017-1-31_16-32-56.png
     
  16. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Banks are now at -3 cts... -19 cts... and -8 cts.
     
  17. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Those who SHORT the banks late are feeling the bola squeeze now.
    They have seen recovered to -7 cts... -23 cts... -9 cts.
    If tomorrow rebound with gap up those bolas will kena squeeze until explode.
     
  18. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (Jan 31): UOB Kay Hian is maintaining its “overweight” call on the planation sector within Singapore and the region, noting that crude palm oil (CPO) prices are likely to stay firm throughout 1H17 as supply is still relatively tight.

    “We see weaker CPO prices in 2H17 vs 1H17, but maintain our price expectation of RM2,600 ($834) for 2017. Investors should sell on strength when share prices trend higher as companies are expected to report good 4Q16 and 1Q17 earnings,” says UOB’s regional research team in a recent report.

    It is also expecting CPO demand to improve marginally this year, driven by stable demand on Indonesia’s biodiesel mandate; the rolling out of the B10 biodiesel programme in Malaysia; as well as stable demand from India and China.

    “If the production recovery comes in weaker than expectations due to weaker yield recovery, this will be positive for CPO prices,” state the team.

    “Meanwhile, rising crude oil prices could make biodiesel blend more financially feasible as fewer subsidies are needed especially when CPO prices weaken in 2H17. This will increase demand for biodiesel and act as a support to CPO prices. Moreover, higher crude oil prices are positive for palm oil prices,” it adds.

    According to UOB, the price differential between palm oil and crude oil is wide, with prices for the former coming in about US$330/tonne above the latter.

    The team’s top “buy” picks for the season therefore focus on companies with younger tree age profiles and efficient management, as it believes this translates to strong production recovery and hence higher production growth and earnings.

    These include Bumitama Agri and First Resources in Singapore which have both been given “buy” ratings at target prices of 78.5 and $1.98 respectively.

    “We like Bumitama Agri for its stronger earnings growth, driven by positive production growth and a high leverage to CPO prices. Share price has lagged behind peers and provides the highest upside to our target price,” elaborates the team.

    On the other hand, UOB analysts speculate that First Resources’ share price could rally above their target price to reflect the current high CPO prices and expected strong 4Q16 earnings which are to be reported on Feb 17.

    The group’s fresh fruit bunches (FFB) production rate is also expected to grow y-o-y by 17.9% and 16.3% in 2017 and 2018 respectively.
     
  19. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Dow Futures at -36. Better than earlier.
     
  20. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Sorry but this is for me.

    Need to keep reminding myself to see the big picture and to accept that many cash-rich retirees out there
    live off the market by doing BUY & HOLD and part and parcel of that includes seeing one's position being
    tossed up and down when the sea becomes choppy. Imagine being in a boat caught in a storm of 50-foot
    waves. When the boat is at the crest of the wave, the plunge below where the trough is...is 50-foot down.
    Likewise when the boat is at the trough of the wave and you look all around you, the body of water surrounding
    you are all 50-foot high. But if you can weather thru that storm, when trough and crest meet, the sea is level
    and all is calm. And your boat will reach its port to unload the cargo and you, as the captain of the boat, will
    get paid. If scared and jump overboard now, what I make is not enough to cover one month's salary. But if I
    can focus on the big picture and keep the faith, the reward for that can be one year's salary. That's how big
    the difference can be between staying focused and having cold feet.
     
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