The Trading Floor - Jan 2012

Discussion in 'The Trading Floor' started by 發發發, Jan 1, 2012.


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  1. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  2. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    XD Dates :

    Capitaland

    XD 2 May 2017 - 10 cts

    CapitaComm Trust
    Results 20 Oct 2017 (am)
    Ascendas REIT
    Results 30 Oct 2017 (pm)
    XD ???

    CapitaMall Trust
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    SGX
    Results ???
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    Results 25 Oct 2017 (pm)
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    SingTel
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    Suntec REIT
    Results 27 Oct 2017 (am)
    XD 2 Nov 2017 - 2.483 cts
     
  3. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    [​IMG]

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    Last edited: Aug 22, 2017
  4. trendtrader

    trendtrader Well-Known Member

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  5. trendtrader

    trendtrader Well-Known Member

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    Oops! Okie. Thanks!
     
  6. trendtrader

    trendtrader Well-Known Member

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    My Broker's View dated 28 Jan 2012 (from Lim & Tan)

    Further Gain Ahead?

    If you still doubt whether the current bull run is sustainable, you are not alone. After last week
    strong run up, STI index has closed above the 2900 mark and re-testing the 2920 resistance level. In
    fact, some analysts still remained bearish. In a report earlier Friday, CIMB maintained its end-2012
    STI target at 2680 and its 'Underweight' call after meeting with U.S. and Asian investors. It said its
    cautious view matched that of investors but noted they are equally worried about being left behind
    in a rally. However, there is another school that have predicted the recent rally to be sustainable
    with liquidity flowing back to Asian, quoting cheap valuation in Asia. So who should we believe or
    follow?

    Looking at a broader picture, the US S&P 500 has since jumped almost 20% from its 2011 low in
    October after optimism that the U.S. economy will withstand Europe’s debt crisis. According to
    Birinyi Associates Inc., the index’s 50-day moving average [MA] is 0.2% away from exceeding the
    average price for the prior 200 days MA. The formation, known as a “golden cross,” will occur for
    the first time since 2010 and is historically a signal that more gains are likely to follow. However,
    local STI index is still not at this stage yet though the 20days MA has already crossed 100days MA,
    confirming a short term uptrend. Does this mean our local index still has further room to gain?

    Caution over Greece's debt restructuring talks and worries over Europe and its financial turmoil will
    still persist. If you are a trader, trend is what we called our best friend. When the market trend is
    confirmed up, we entered long and ride it and vice versa. Do not be stubborn. In early/mid 2009, I
    still remember a trader friend who does not believe the market is heading up and keep shorting or I
    called “against the flow”. Remember, you will never win by going against the big “brother”. On the
    other hand, if you are an investor, look for undervalue stocks that have not reached its valuation. It
    is much likely to be appreciated by most investors and traders once the strong bull is here.

    As I have mentioned in my last weekly review, it is likely that stocks will continue to head new
    high in the coming weeks with the current bullish environment. It may just lack the catalyst from
    positive news arising from Greece debt restructuring or further economy additional stimulus such as
    Quantitative Easing (QE) to push the market to a full blown bull run. Next week will be important
    as US will be releasing some critical economy data. Do look out for them.

    Thus, it is hard to predict the market. Just follow the trend for traders while fundamental for
    investors. Bear in mind, stock market will not go up in a straight line, there will definitely be up and
    down along the way. Timing is important, enter at the right time [though not always at the bull eye],
    and take profits if reach your target. Do not be greedy.

    Technically, RSI and Stoch are way overbought. I have highlighted last week that STI index will
    likely head to 2920 after it has crossed the 100days MA [bullish]. Coming week will be critical as it
    remain to see whether STI index can surge pass the crucial resistance level 2920. It may head
    towards the last high of 3215.27 on 01 August 2010 if manage to clear 3000 level convincingly.

    Support & Resistance:

    Immediate Support of STI: 2860
    Level 1 Support of STI: 2820
    Level 2 Support of STI: 2780
    Level 3 Support of STI: 2720

    Immediate Resistance of STI: 2920
    Level 1 Resistance of STI: 2960
    Level 2 Resistance of STI: 3000
    ________________________________________________________________________________
    Stocks Pick:
    Top pick (potential for further gain): GentingSP, Yangzijiang

    Dividend play (with relatively stable revenues and earnings): Singtel, Starhub, M1, SPH, ST
    Engineering, SembCorp, Comfortdelgro

    REITs play: Mapletree Industrial, Mapletree Logistics Trust, Frasers Centrepoint trust and
    CapitalMall Trust

    High Volatility play: Olam, Noble, Kepcorp, STXOSV, GentingSP, Sembmar, Wilmar
    Small/Mid cap play: ChinaAniH (Potential delisting candidate), Gallant
    ________________________________________________________________________________________________
     
  7. angang8

    angang8 Well-Known Member

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    Boss TT .. u post in the Jan thread la... no wonder the Feb thread so quiet even with DJ erected so long last nite. :smilielol5:
     
  8. trendtrader

    trendtrader Well-Known Member

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    Is NOL a sitting duck for Submarine Skippers?

    Nomura - 30 Jan 2012

    FY2011 revenue broadly in line with our forecast

    For the full year, containers revenue declined 6% to US$7.4bnm with average freight
    rates declining 10% to US$2,500/FEU, despite volumes increasing 5% y-y. Compared to
    our FY2011F estimates, actual containers revenue was broadly in line with our forecast
    (3% higher than our estimate).

    Nomura comments: Pre-CNY demand rush unsustainable;
    container shipping outlook still difficult

    We believe the pre-CNY-driven demand continued into early January, but softened as
    Chinese factories closed for the CNY holidays. Looking into this year, we expect the
    container shipping sector to remain loss-making driven by supply imbalance,
    especially
    on long-haul routes given orderbook dominated by +10,000 TEU sized newbuildings.

    With global idled capacity remaining at around 3.9% (significantly below the peak of
    12%) and inventory restocking yet to materialise, we remain bearish on the container
    shipping market.
    We could turn more positive once inventory restocking begins.
    NOL’s 4Q results will be announced on 22 February after market close. We estimate a
    4Q net loss of US$102mn, which is sequentially worse than the 3Q net loss of
    US$91mn.


    Submarine Commanders FALL IN !!!!!! aa-1.gif

    Torpedo44.jpg
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2012
  9. trendtrader

    trendtrader Well-Known Member

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    For my Dai Lole Paul.....

    UOB KayHian - 1 Feb 2012

    SMRT Corporation (SELL/S$1.74/Target: S$1.53)
    3QFY12: End of tunnel not in sight. Downgrade to SELL.

    OCBC Securities - 1 Feb 2012

    SMRT Corporation: Dividend policy intact
    ●QoQ operating expenses stay
    almost flat
    ●Dividend policy remains intact
    despite woes
    ●Interim selling pressure but
    dividends attractive

    Downward pressure will persist but
    dividend play remains.
    With an uninspiring 3Q12 performance,
    consensus estimates for SMRT’s FY12
    earnings will likely come off. Coupled with
    lingering concerns over possible penalty
    payments and increases to maintenance
    expenses upon the conclusion of the
    Committee of Inquiry’s (COI) investigations,
    we expect further selling pressure on its
    shares in the interim. However, with a fall of
    1.7% (vs. +9.8% of STI) since the start of
    the year and an unchanged dividend policy
    (FY12F dividend yield 4.5%), we believe an
    attractive entry point for SMRT has emerged.
    Maintain BUY at an unchanged fair value
    estimate of S$2.04.
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2012
  10. trendtrader

    trendtrader Well-Known Member

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    From IgMarkets...

    One scenario: as long as 2917 is a resistance, we are bearish. In this case, the
    downside breakout of 2860 will trigger a bearish acceleration towards 2852.

    Alternative scenario: a break above 2917 would open the way to 2935.
     
  11. Dawninvestor

    Dawninvestor Well-Known Member

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    haha i guess i am worse.. playing dota :biggrin:
    i didn't wanted to chase because my clp would be much higher already. Shall see today if there is any nice setup or not..

    Good luck !
     
  12. 發發發

    發發發 Well-Known Member

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    Okie, just open a new thread for Feb 2012.

    End of thread for Jan 2012.
     
  13. danielc156

    danielc156 Well-Known Member

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    We r suppose to start a new thread right??
     
  14. danielc156

    danielc156 Well-Known Member

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    Morning ah fa ger.
     
  15. 發發發

    發發發 Well-Known Member

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    Good morning Arh Gu. Yeap, read the news from CNBC too. Wonder if this "Golden cross" is here to stay or just a illusion created by those CK/BB.
     
  16. danielc156

    danielc156 Well-Known Member

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  17. Milo-Dino

    Milo-Dino Well-Known Member

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    alamak.. just saw.. looks like got not enough bulls to even push up...
    looks like will range... and either inch up or down..
     
  18. Milo-Dino

    Milo-Dino Well-Known Member

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    thanks

    I just closed my short at 12596... this down move loss momentum liao... i expect some recovery....
    will see how it goes... if i'm still awake.. may tikam a position again...

    I just drew a trendline for my 2 min chart... it actually broke up at 12580+.. too bad I was busy playing my fm2011 (yes it's 1 year old lol)
     
  19. Dawninvestor

    Dawninvestor Well-Known Member

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    Don't worry milo.. i missed my euro triggering short point at 3160 because i was gaming..
    now too late to chase

    congrats man! huat!
     
  20. Milo-Dino

    Milo-Dino Well-Known Member

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    dow 12605....

    if only i had more balls to keep 2 contracts instead of 1
     
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