The Trading Floor - December 2013

Discussion in 'The Trading Floor' started by nottibird, Dec 1, 2013.


Draft saved Draft deleted
  1. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,464
    Likes Received:
    436
    Gender:
    Male
  2. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,464
    Likes Received:
    436
    Gender:
    Male
  3. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,464
    Likes Received:
    436
    Gender:
    Male
    When you spot a stock which is on a steady downtrend or uptrend and you trade that stock, you should trade in the direction of the trend
    and stay with it until the trend changes. Your should go with the trend becoz that is the primary direction. Any short term move in the opposite
    direction is a counter-trend move and unless triggered by a change in the fundamentals of the company plus that counter-trend move is
    accompanied by a surge in the average daily volume, that move is likely to be temporary and shortlived. You may well have to languish
    meantime whilst the counter-trend move is in progress. But as long as the trend is still valid and continues, sooner or later the counter-trend
    move will exhaust itself and burn itself out and the stock will return to and resume in the primary direction of its trend. Stay with the trend until
    it changes.
     
  4. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,464
    Likes Received:
    436
    Gender:
    Male
    When you spot a stock which is on a steady downtrend or uptrend and you trade that stock, you should trade in the direction of the trend
    and stay with it until the trend changes. Your should go with the trend becoz that is the primary direction. Any short term move in the opposite
    direction is a counter-trend move and unless triggered by a change in the fundamentals of the company plus that counter-trend move is
    accompanied by a surge in the average daily volume, that move is likely to be temporary and shortlived. You may well have to languish
    meantime whilst the counter-trend move is in progress. But as long as the trend is still valid and continues, sooner or later the counter-trend
    move will exhaust itself and burn itself out and the stock will return to and resume in the primary direction of its trend. Stay with the trend until
    it changes.
     
  5. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,464
    Likes Received:
    436
    Gender:
    Male
  6. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,464
    Likes Received:
    436
    Gender:
    Male
    During the reporting season in April, Suntec was a laggard. Someone in her was divesting bigtime and sold her down
    from 1.91 region to 1.86. She rebounded from there when the selling stopped and traded to a High of 1.97 prior to XD.
    After XD, she has been falling without any meaningful bounce and hit a LOW of 1.69 today.


    [​IMG]

    Where is her possible bottom?
    I cant see anything with her 6-Mth chart or 1-Yr chart.
    Only when I pulled out her 2-Yr chart that I could see a previous Area of Support at 1.57 to 1.73.

    [​IMG]

    She already entered this Area of Support since yesterday when she reached 1.73.
    So we should wait and see if 1.57 can hold.
    She closed at 1.71 today.
    1.57 is just 14 cts away from today' s closing price.
    If our REIT investors react adversely to the almost certain rate hike tonite, whether another 14 cts of fall to 1.57 is enough for
    medium term and long term investors to find value in her to buy her for keeps is something we will have to wait and see. She
    pays about 10 cts dividends per year. At 1.57, her Dividend Yield will be 6.37% p.a. which is not bad plus a reasonable chance
    of getting a decent capital appreciation.
     
  7. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,464
    Likes Received:
    436
    Gender:
    Male
    leex0025
    curiousmoo
    winwin
    luckywarrior
    newtrade
    colorado
    lucky520
    Newbiefan
     
    Last edited: May 11, 2018
  8. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,464
    Likes Received:
    436
    Gender:
    Male
    DBS...

    Her last few major pullbacks were...

    From 29.71 (26 Feb) to 27.85 (5 Mar).... 6.26%.
    Then came the rebound from 27.85 to 29.19.
    After that another pullback from 29.19 (14 Mar) to 26.35 (4 Apr)... 9.73%.

    Last High was 31.28.
    If the current pullback is 6.28%, it will end at 29.31.
    If the current pullback is 9.73%, it will end at 28.23.

    But the entire pullback from 29.71 (26 Feb) to 26.35 (4 Apr) was 11.3%.
    And if the current pullback from Last High at 31.28 is going to be 11.3%, then it will end at 27.74.
     
  9. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,464
    Likes Received:
    436
    Gender:
    Male
  10. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,464
    Likes Received:
    436
    Gender:
    Male
  11. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,464
    Likes Received:
    436
    Gender:
    Male
    For my own easy reference...

    *************************************************************************************
    SingTel...

    I just did the math.
    I have 129 lots at an average price of 3.96.
    This position was opened on 21 Mar 2017.
    Assuming by 30 Apr 2018, she can recover to say $3.89 and I sell at that price, the Aug 10.7 cts dividends and the Dec 9.8 cts dividends
    can cover the com and interest charges from 21 Mar 2017 to 30 Apr 2018 leaving me with 7.5 cts to cover the loss in stock price.

    In short, if can sell at $3.89 by 30 Apr 2018, I will achieve a breakeven on this trade.

    That's quite a comforting thought.

    The question to ask is - will she recover to $3.89 by 30 Apr 2018 ?

    Well, April is reporting month for the REITs and some of the blue chip counters. SingTel usually report results in May and that's when she
    will also declare the usual 10.7 cts dividends. During the Mar to Apr period, the market tends to be firm as it is reporting season.
     
  12. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,464
    Likes Received:
    436
    Gender:
    Male
  13. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,464
    Likes Received:
    436
    Gender:
    Male
  14. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,464
    Likes Received:
    436
    Gender:
    Male
  15. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,464
    Likes Received:
    436
    Gender:
    Male
  16. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,464
    Likes Received:
    436
    Gender:
    Male
  17. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,464
    Likes Received:
    436
    Gender:
    Male
  18. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,464
    Likes Received:
    436
    Gender:
    Male
  19. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,464
    Likes Received:
    436
    Gender:
    Male
  20. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,464
    Likes Received:
    436
    Gender:
    Male
Loading...

Share This Page