The Trading Floor - December 2013

Discussion in 'The Trading Floor' started by nottibird, Dec 1, 2013.


Draft saved Draft deleted
  1. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,259
    Likes Received:
    419
    Gender:
    Male
  2. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,259
    Likes Received:
    419
    Gender:
    Male
  3. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,259
    Likes Received:
    419
    Gender:
    Male
    Yesterday I wrote this, posted and deleted.
    Now it is clearer.

    w5 ext EW 2800 w1 2859 w2 2828 w3? 2887 w4? 2864 w5? 2908
    w1 2800 to 2859 delta 59
    w2 2859 to 2828 delta 31 tgt 2828 dn 52 %
    w3 2828 to 2887 delta 59 tgt 2887 up 100 %
    - now on w3, watch the reversal to w4
    w4 2887 to 2864 delta 23 tgt 2864 dn 38.2 %
    w5 2864 to 2908 delta 44 tgt 2908 up 75 %

    After this, wave abc correction.
    Wave a dn
    Wave b up
    Wave c dn final near to w4 2800.
    I need to check pass retracement then update.
     
  4. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,259
    Likes Received:
    419
    Gender:
    Male
    DBS


    EW 2635 w1 2743 w2 2700 w3 2830 w4 w5
    W1 108
    W2 43 dn 40%
    W3 174 tgt 2874
    - px hit 2830 delta 130 up 120%
    W4 50 tgt 2780
    - px hit 2800 delta 30 dn 23% and turn up
    W5 108 tgt 2908

    Now w5 delta 108 is too big, so it break down to W5 ext EW
    EW 2800 w1 2845 w2 2817 w3 2890 w4 2862 w5 2907
    w1 45
    w2 27.81 tgt 2817 dn 61.8% of w1
    - now moving from 2845 to 2817
    - it may not reach and start to turn, so monitor from here
    w3 72.81 tgt 2890 up 161.8% of w1
    w4 27.81 tgt 2862 dn 38.2% of w3
    w5 45 tgt 2907 up 100% of w1
     
  5. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,259
    Likes Received:
    419
    Gender:
    Male
    SEX...

    Wave 1 - 7.10 to 7.33
    Wave 2 - 7.33 to 7.17
    Wave 3 - 7.17 to 7.48
    Wave 4 - 7.48 to 7.35
    Wave 5 - (currently in progress) is 7.35 to 7.58 based on the length of Wave 5 being equal to the length of Wave 1.
    W5 delta is 23.
    It can be another 5 waves. Call w5 ext EW.
    So it can be like this
    W5 ext EW
    W1 735 to 744 delta 9
    W2 744 to 738 delta 6
    W3 738 to 754 delta 16
    W4 754 to 748 delta 6
    W5 748 to 758 delta 10
     
  6. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,259
    Likes Received:
    419
    Gender:
    Male
  7. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,259
    Likes Received:
    419
    Gender:
    Male
  8. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,259
    Likes Received:
    419
    Gender:
    Male
    Here's a Trading Plan for the 4 Musketeers for your consideration.

    CMT...

    Last High was 2.16.
    Last Low was 1.95.
    In her next Result cum Dividend Run, she should be able to reach at least 2.10.
    She closed at 2.04 today.
    Which gives her an upside of 6 cts.

    Ascendas...

    Last High was 2.86.
    Last Low was 2.54.
    She should be able to reach 2.78 by end-April.
    She closed at 2.66.
    So her upside is 12 cts.

    Suntec...

    Last High was 2.25.
    Last Low was 1.89.
    She is a strong stock. Falling back on my past observation of how well she can run, I will put her Price Target at...at least 2.15.
    She closed at 1.97.
    So her upside is 18 cts.

    CCT...

    Last High was 2.05.
    Last Low was 1.69.
    Becoz she is not paying dividends in the next reporting season, I will factor this into her prospects and give her a Price Target of 1.87.
    She closed at 1.75.
    This gives me an upside of 12 cts.

    To summarise, the 4 Musketeers' respective upsides are:

    Suntec 18 cts
    CCT 12 cts
    Ascendas 12 cts
    CMT 6 cts

    If you agree with this projection, you can allocate troops to each Musketeer according to their potential upside by end-April.

    Please note their margins are as follows:

    Suntec at 20% for the 1st 562.5 lots.
    CCT at 10% for the 1st 160 lots.
    Ascendas at 10% for the 1st 140 lots.
    CMT at 10% for the 1st 170 lots.
     
  9. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,259
    Likes Received:
    419
    Gender:
    Male
  10. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,259
    Likes Received:
    419
    Gender:
    Male
    When I was analysing her pullbacks from Jan 2017 to Feb 2018 before she broke above 27.40 which was her Last High back then,
    I noticed that only twice during this period she did a pullback of slightly below 11%. The other of her pullbacks were anything from
    5% to just under 11%. So using this as a guideline, her possible pullbacks are:

    If 5% - $27.99... a fall of $1.48 ct from Last High of $29.47.
    If 5.5% - $27.84...$1.63.
    If 6% - $27.70...$1.77.
    If 6.5% - $27.55...$1.92.
    If 7% - $27.40...$2.07.
    If 7.5% - $27.25...$2.22.
    If 8% - $27.11...$2.36.
    If 8.5% - $26.96...$2.51.
    If 9% - $26.81...$2.66.
    If 9.5% - $26.67...$2.80.
    If 10% - $26.52... $2.95.
    If 10.5% - $26.37...$3.10.

    20-ema - $27.51.
    50-ema - $26.39.
     
  11. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,259
    Likes Received:
    419
    Gender:
    Male
    Fri 19
    Thu 306.88
    Wed 253.04
    Tue 39.18
    Mon 410,37
    Fri 330.44
    Thu -1032.89
    Wed -19,42
     
  12. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,259
    Likes Received:
    419
    Gender:
    Male
  13. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,259
    Likes Received:
    419
    Gender:
    Male
  14. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,259
    Likes Received:
    419
    Gender:
    Male
    For my own easy reference...

    *************************************************************************************
    SingTel...

    I just did the math.
    I have 129 lots at an average price of 3.96.
    This position was opened on 21 Mar 2017.
    Assuming by 30 Apr 2018, she can recover to say $3.89 and I sell at that price, the Aug 10.7 cts dividends and the Dec 9.8 cts dividends
    can cover the com and interest charges from 21 Mar 2017 to 30 Apr 2018 leaving me with 7.5 cts to cover the loss in stock price.

    In short, if can sell at $3.89 by 30 Apr 2018, I will achieve a breakeven on this trade.

    That's quite a comforting thought.

    The question to ask is - will she recover to $3.89 by 30 Apr 2018 ?

    Well, April is reporting month for the REITs and some of the blue chip counters. SingTel usually report results in May and that's when she
    will also declare the usual 10.7 cts dividends. During the Mar to Apr period, the market tends to be firm as it is reporting season.
     
  15. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,259
    Likes Received:
    419
    Gender:
    Male
  16. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,259
    Likes Received:
    419
    Gender:
    Male
    CCT
    Jan - 14,866.43
    May - 640.26
    Aug - 294.66
    Sep - 2377.96

    Total 18,179.31

    Suntec
    Feb - 433.24
    Mar - 295.01
    Aug - 1750.32

    Total 2478.57

    Ascendas
    Mar - 4265.55
    Apr - 159.07
    May - 552.94
    Jun - 734
    Jul - 7664.49
    Aug - 376.98
    Oct - 14,166,60

    Total 27,919.63

    SingTel

    Feb - 3588.27
    Mar - 7836.30
    Apr - -6056.60
    Jul - 20,895.41
    Oct - 279.11
    Nov - 1535.99

    Total 28,078.48
     
  17. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,259
    Likes Received:
    419
    Gender:
    Male
  18. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,259
    Likes Received:
    419
    Gender:
    Male
  19. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,259
    Likes Received:
    419
    Gender:
    Male
  20. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,259
    Likes Received:
    419
    Gender:
    Male
    a1.jpg
    a1.jpg
     
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2017
Loading...

Share This Page