The Trading Floor - December 2013

Discussion in 'The Trading Floor' started by nottibird, Dec 1, 2013.


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  1. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    aab30.jpg
     
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2019 at 1:57 PM
  2. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    nottibird Moderator

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    nottibird Moderator

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    nottibird Moderator

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    nottibird Moderator

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  7. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Ah Mar...

    Lau Aunty you neber heard before ar?
    Just look into the mirror and you will see her immediately. [​IMG]

    Ah Mar.... Lau Aunty is a nickname I gave to OCBC.
    There is a story behind how this Lau Aunty came about.
    A nong nong time ago in another forum far far away, there lives a bird.... albeit a notti one.
    What this bird noticed about the 3 banks was...

    Dumbo ran the fastest and furthest.
    That was then.
    That time, Dumbo was the clear leader...aways the first of the banks to run and always ran the furthest and registerd the highest stock
    price amongst the banks. UOB was a close second. She was a follower in that only when Dumbo ran..... then she would follow suit and
    run too and run rather well and rather far though not as far as Dumbo and her stock price would always be lower than Dumbo' s. Then
    last is OCBC. I am sure you guys have gone thru this experience before ---- you stand in line to use an ATM. And somewhere in front
    of you in your queue is an aunty who will not do anything to get ready to use the ATM but will wait till only when its her turn to use the
    ATM then she starts to unzip her handbag to rummage thru her handbag to look for her wallet. And very often, she cannot find her wallet
    becoz her handbag is full of stuffs and her wallet, being smaller and heavy will always fall right to the bottom of her handbag. So there you
    are, one long queue of impatient and annoyed younger and not-so-young-but-not-uncle-or-aunty age as well waiting to use the ATM but
    all kena jammed becoz right at the front of the queue is this Lau Aunty who is frantically trying to search for her wallet and to do that, she
    would have to remove her folded umbrella, spare plastic bags, tupperware food container, tissue paper and other stuffs first before she can
    reach her wallet. Alas !!! She found her wallet !!! And everyone in the queue heaves a sigh of relief. Some of them even want to clap but
    held themselves back. Next is this Lau Aunty starts to open her wallet and then flip here and flip there to look for her ATM card becoz she
    cannot remember in which compartment she hid her ATM card. So its another 2 mins of flipping from front cover to back cover and then
    from back cover to front cover again to look for her ATM card and ALAS !!! She found it !!! Another big sigh of relief from those waiting in
    line behind her. So now that she has found her ATM card and is ready to slot it into the ATM, she didnt do that. Instead, she again looked
    into her handbag to look for something. And everyone in the queue was going.... Wad Der Fug ??? Lau Aunty then spend another 15
    seconds...which will seem like 15 years... searching thru her handbag and ALAS !!! She found it !!! Her pair of old flower eyes glasses !!!

    So okay...let' s recap. First, Aunty had to search for wallet.
    FOUND !!!
    Next, Aunty had to search for ATM card.
    ALSO FOUND !!!
    Next some more....Aunty had to search for old flower eyes glasses.
    ALSO FOUND !!!

    Next, with glasses put on and her ATM card pushed into the slot, Lau Aunty started to look at the keypad and then just stared blankly
    at it. Lau Aunty just stared at the keyboard. But didnt do anything. Everybody again was ...WAD DER FUG IS HAPPENING ???

    Lau Aunty CANNOT REMEMBER THE PIN NUMBER arrrrrrghhhhhh !!! That' s wad der fug was happening !!!!!!!!! [​IMG]


    As I was saying, Dumbo is a sprinter. A speedy gonzale.
    Botak is a follower but a close second. When she sees Dumbo runs, she will run too.
    But OCBC hor....this fellow Sibeh Bun Soh Soh one. Sibeh Lum Nua one.
    OCBC hor in short.... the way she moves in terms of stock price movement......is just like that Lau Aunty at the front of that ATM. Bely slow one.
     
  8. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Bro Max,

    Its okay if you want to LOON and you have the time, ammo and mental strength to LOON until she revisit the southern tip of India again.
    But meantime to make it easier to LOON, I suggest you do some hedge when she dips.
    I dont think we will see any dip below 7.50.
    As of now, for today, I dont see a dip to 7.50. In the days and weeks ahead....maybe. But not today.
    The reason why it is advisable to hedge is becoz she is reporting full year results in July.
    Expected dividend is 7.5 cts. But if Management is happy with earnings and wants to reward shareholders with higher than 7.5 cts,
    it will be an extra engine fitted to this boat. Do bear in mind that unlike a business like SingTel' s or SIA' s or KepCorp' s, the business
    of a Stock Exchange doesnt require recurrent heavy expenditure on equipment or raw materials or infrastructure. So SGX is very
    different from other businesses in that she doesnt need to hold back most of its profits for future operating expenses. Which empowers
    it to pay more dividends when earnings are healthy. As such I am inclined to believe dividends will be more than 7.5 cts in July. This
    dividend will trade XD only in Sep. Then come Oct there is another set of 7.5 cts dividend to expect. That Oct dividend is for the Q1
    results for the period from July to Sep 2019. Given the above, I think the ground is sweet for the monkey to do the " no gap down on XD"
    thingy when SEX trades XD in Sep. And then continue to push the price higher after that to ignite another round of dividend run for the
    XD in Oct. We wont want to be caught SHORT during this period. If we are caught SHORT, we will want to have hedge positions to take
    care of the dividends. Say for Sep XD, if dividend is 10.5 cts and another 7.5 cts for Oct XD... total is 18 cts. No joke one hor.

    Between now and then will she retrace to 7.30...... its all up to the monkey but I wouldnt count on it.
    More like 7.50.
    If he wants to be kind to us.... maybe 7.40.
    But dont count on the monkey to be kind.
    He is not here to help us to make money.
    He is here to make money out of us.
    I have rolled out the timetable between now and XD in Oct for all of you to plan your trades and manage your positions.
    Think about what you want to do and come up with a plan to engineer a soft landing for yourself.
     
  10. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    DBS...
    Last High $28.64
    Last Low $24.98
    Down $3.66 or 12.78%.

    UOB...
    Last High $27.97
    Last Low $24.41
    Down $3.56 or 12.73%

    OCBC...
    Last High $12.19
    Last Low $10.92
    Down $1.27 or 10.42%

    SGX...
    Last high $8.05
    Last Low $7.22
    Down 83 cts or 10.31%

    Capitaland...
    Last High $3.72
    Last Low $3.22
    Down 50 cts or 13.44%

    ST Engrg
    Last High $4.05
    Last Low $3.88
    Down 17 cts or 4.2%

    Wilmar...
    Last High $3.69
    Last Low $3.37
    Down 32 cts or 8.67%

    CMT...
    Last High $2.97
    Last Low $2.37
    Down 10 cts or 4.05%

    Ascendas...
    Last High $3.06
    Last Low $2.88
    Down 18 cts or 5.88%

    CCT...
    Last High $2.01
    Last Low $1.87
    Down 14 cts or 6.97%

    Suntec...
    Last High $2.00
    Last Low $1.78
    Down 22 cts or 11%
     
  11. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    nottibird Moderator

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    Bros, after seeing all your trades with Ms Yen, im starting to get pretty gian. Anybody has a starter pack on guidelines on Ms Yen? Stuff like " Does she trade within a range? Or trade within a trend? Where do you put your stop losses? Do you average up/down and how often? And what are the risks involved? Because I heard things like Forex is a dangerous game due to the quick and big swings.
     
  14. nottibird

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    sis168 ( Date: 06-May-2019 12:32) Posted:

    Hi Bro Kazern,

    GBP/JPY is very sensitive to news/risk. This morning I watched the CNA news reporting about Trump' s tweets. This news is sure to cause the currency pair to head south. That was why I shorted this morning, albeit a little late. Normally I don' t trade so early.

    Resistance and Support prices are still relevant in trading GBP/JPY. However, one has to be mindful that those prices may change based on what news we get. Positive news for GBP/JPY can be a Brexit deal is finalized, or British decide to stay in EU. The latter will be super positive. If there is a NO deal Brexit, that will be a negative news.

    Based on Daily charts for GBP/JPY, I see the resistance is first 147 and then 148.5. Support for past 2 months has been 144. But support can still go lower. It was 135 in January this year. Need to be always ready for price to break the ceiling or the floor.

    Short term trend reading is another thing I try to master in FX trading. When there is no triggering news, I read the trend and ride on it. Sometimes the uptrend is actually in preparation to do a dump. And vice versa. That' s the bawu you need to learn on your own by practicing it. Another thing I frequently watch for is long solid candles coupled with volume. If say the price dropped 300-400 points, I might tikam. Or if price rise 300-400 points, I short. But today is different hor. Today got news trigger for it to drop. So, I will focus on looking for opportunities to do more shorts.

    Last Friday on the other hand, the price rocket up. So last Friday I focused only on longing it.

    If price oscillate within 100 points range, I normally do nothing.

    This morning, the price hit 145 and did a u-turn up. Question is will it go lower in the afternoon? I have a feeling that it will. Watch the price at around 2pm. That' s when people from Europe will join in the game. But again, need to watch the price movement. It could be a pump to dump and still keep the support at 145.

    The next timeline is 7pm, that' s when the US people start to join in.

    Also, I always keep an eye on Wall Street Cash. Sometimes, these prices go in tandem.

    I don' t know if my post is helpful. But perhaps practice with the Demo account to know its bawu is the key. Otherwise, just wait for any triggering news and ride on it.
     
  15. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    nottibird Moderator

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    Invisible Guest (Best)
    Drishyam
    Gone Girl
    Life
    Searching
    Snowpiercer
    John Carter both movies
    The usual suspect
    Three billboards outside ebbing (abit complex)
    Get out
     
  17. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Chapter 1 - Understanding How The Market Works

    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
     
  18. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    D-Link Main Service Center
    D-Link International Pte Ltd
    1 International Busines Park
    The Synergy #03-12
    Singapore 609917

    Service Center Hotline (65) 6501 4200 [press 2]
    24×7 Technical Support Hotline (65) 6501 4200
    Request Technical Support

    Operating Hours
    Monday – Friday (9am to 6pm)
    Closed on weekend & Public Holidays
     
  19. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Calling all Tua Phows of this Trading Floor including the Tua Phows amongst our lizards. This is one suggestion of a
    Trading Plan for SEX. SEX is an expensive counter. To execute this Trading Plan, you need to have a sizeable army.
    That's why this trading suggestion is for Tua Phows only. If you dont have a big enough army but you want to adopt
    this trading plan, you need to modify it ... reduce the lot size... reduce the BUY frequency by spreading them out further
    apart and by starting your 1st BUY at a lower price. But if you have the resources, this is what you can do.

    $7.30 x 5 lots = $36500
    Margin ($7.30 x 5 lots x 10%) = $3650
    Price per share $7.30 x 5 lots

    $7.25 x 8 lots = $58000
    Margin ($7.25 x 13 lots x 10%) = $9425
    Paper Loss $250
    Total Ammo Required $9675
    Average Price per share is $7.2692 x 13 lots

    $7.20 x 10 lots = $72000
    Margin ($7.20 x 23 lots x 10%) = $16560
    Paper Loss $900
    Total Ammo Required $17460
    Average Price per share is $7.2391 x 23 lots

    $7.15 x 12 lots = $85800
    Margin ($7.15 x 30 lots x 10%) + ( $7.15 x 5 lots x 20%) = $28600
    Paper Loss $2050
    Total Ammo Required $30650
    Average Price per share is $7.2085 x 35 lots

    $7.10 x 15 lots = $106500
    Margin ($7.10 x 30 lots x 10%) + ($7.10 x 20 lots x 20%) = $49700
    Paper Loss $3800
    Total Ammo Required $53500
    Average Price per share is $7.176 x 50 lots

    $7.05 x 18 lots = $126900
    Margin ($7.05 x 30 lots x 10%) + ($7.05 x 38 lots x 20%) = $74730
    Paper Loss $6300
    Total Ammo Required $81030
    Average Price per share is $7.1426 x 68 lots

    $7.00 x 20 lots = $140000
    Margin ($7.00 x 30 lots x 10%) + ($7.00 x 58 lots x 20%) = $102200
    Paper Loss $9700
    Total Ammo Required $111900
    Average Price per share is $7.1102 x 88 lots

    For me, if $7.00 breaks, I will observe a ceasefire and see how low she wants to go first.
    Then add when she turns.
    If $7.00 breaks, the U-Turn can come at $6.90 or at $6.80 or at $6.72 or even at $6.60 based on chart (Jan 2016).
    Anyway, just to complete the picture, if she revisits $6.60, margin will be $96360 and paper loss will be $54597.60
    Total ammo needed just to hold this position at $6.60 is $150957.60. So to do this trade this way is only for those
    with deep pockets and big enough balls.

    In this Trading Plan, the 1st BUY begins at $7.30. And then at every 5-bid interval right down to 7.00.
    If you prefer to start buying later so as to get a better entry price, you can. But it comes with a risk.
    Let's say you want to play it very safe and start your 1st BUY at $7.00 and thereafter at every 10-bids interval down
    the line, yes, you will make a lot of money if she dips to $6.60 and then rebound back to $7.50-$7.70 region. But what
    if she doesnt dip to $7.00? What if she finds a bottom and turns anywhere at $7.01 to $7.30? Then you will miss the
    boat altogether. In the last 5 years, she dipped to $7.00 only twice and below $7.00 only 4 times. But in the same period,
    whenever she dipped, she found a bottom at above $7.00 and U-Turned from there 13 times. So the statistics do show
    that waiting for $7.00 or lower before you start buying puts you at a 68% risk of missing the boat.


    [​IMG]

    This is just a suggestion of a Trading Plan. You can modify it, change the entry levels and trade size to customise it to
    your needs, army size and personal preference.
     
  20. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    20 Pips GBP/JPY Scalping Strategy

    This method is straightforward. You will use 5-minute time frames and free GBP/JPY signals. You will also use 25 exponential
    moving averages (EMAs) on the indicator front.

    When the price is above 25 EMA, you are seeing an uptrend. When the price is below 25 EMA, it is considered a downtrend.
    The angle of the trend is important. A relatively horizontal angle means the market is ranging. If the angle is around 30 degrees
    or higher, there is a solid trend on. So, do not trend if the EMA angle is flat.

    Buy Setup

    Moving average angle is 30 degrees or more.
    The price has to be moving above the 25 EMA line.
    Your buy signal is a bullish pin bar. So, buy at market price once the bullish pin bar closes.
    Place your stop loss at least 10 pips under low of the pin bar.
    Your profit target will be 20 pips.

    Sell Setup

    Look for a moving average angle of 30 degrees or above.
    Price should be moving below the 25 EMA line.
    This time it is a bearish pin bar that is your sell signal. You should sell at market price once the bearish pin bar closes.
    Again, opt for a stop loss of 10 pips above the high of the pin bar.
    Profit target is also 20 pips.

    Because the range of the GBP/JPY can be anywhere from 150-200 pips a day, there is ample scalping opportunity. However,
    be warned, this system may underperform in ranging, non-trending markets.

    Trade Size

    Whatever your strategy, the GBP/JPY can turn bullish or bearish quickly. You must set stop losses wide, with small lot sizes.
    You may even want to consider cutting your trade size to around a third of your normal trade size. This allows you to aim for
    higher targets, whilst also reducing potential losses in a volatile currency pair.

    Summing Up Strategy

    The best GBP/JPY strategy for one person, may not generate consistent profits for another trader. The trick is finding a strategy
    that compliments your trading style. Some people prefer focussing on bar charts and daily pivot points, whilst others will focus on
    economic calendars and responding to news events.

    https://www.daytrading.com/gbpjpy
     
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