The Trading Floor - April 2018

Discussion in 'The Trading Floor' started by nottibird, Apr 2, 2018.


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  1. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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  2. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Collected 3 Egg Vouchers today to celebrate my Labour Day.


    [​IMG]
     
  3. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Roger that, sis.
    Now its just wait for a good time to add.
     
  4. sotong11

    sotong11 Well-Known Member

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    Gota lot for .. SGX and CMT... at 7.72 n 2.10
     
  5. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    SEX...

    Hit 7.75.
    Now 7.71 : 7.72.
    She is good for SHORT & HOLD.
     
  6. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    DBS...

    Opened at 30.60...traded up to 30.66 at first...then pulled back to 30.43.
    Then up again to hit High at 30.92.
    Now 30.88 : 30.89.
    Think she wants to go and lick 31.00.
    Still have 2 May... Wed to run before she trades XD on 3 May.
    And even then she may not gap down by $1.10. Maybe around 80 cts?
    And she may gap up again on 2 May to lick 32.00.
     
  7. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    SingTel...

    3.49 : 3.50.
    Hope to see 3.50 break on high volume.
    Best if shortly after 3.50 breaks, sellers at 3.51 and 3.52 are taken out too.
    I believe that will trigger some buying as well as shortcovering.

    Donovan SHORTed at 3.33 and added at 3.40.
    I believe some of his followers joined him.

    Feel like asking Donovan to update his calls for SingTel, Noble, Olam, SembMarine, Cosco, Golden Agri...
    These were the ones who went against his calls.
    He sure damn pissed one. [​IMG]
     
  8. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  9. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (Apr 30): DBS Group’s 1Q earnings increased 21% to $1.51 billion from $1.21 billion a year ago.

    Net profit came in 26% higher at a record $1.52 billion.

    Total income increased 16% to $3.36 billion, led by broad-based growth in loans and non-interest income as well as a higher net interest margin.

    Asset quality was healthy with total allowances declining 18% and new non-performing asset formation at a four-year low.

    Return on equity came in at 13%, the highest in a decade.

    Net interest income rose 16% to $2.13 billion from higher loan volumes and net interest margin.

    Net fee income increased 12% to $744 million. Wealth management fees grew by an underlying 31% to a new high of $331 million from higher investment product and bancassurance sales.

    Other non-interest income was 25% higher at $488 million. There was a net gain of $86 million from a Hong Kong property disposal.

    Net trading income increased 36% to $368 million from higher trading gains. These increases were partially offset by a 78% decline in net gain from investment securities to $22 million.

    By business unit, Consumer Banking/Wealth Management income rose 17% to $1.36 billion, Institutional Banking income grew 3% to $1.36 billion while trading-related income for Treasury Markets rose 33% to $249 million.

    Non-performing assets declined 4% to $5.82 billion. NPA formation was at a four-year low of $195 million and was more than offset by recoveries and write-offs.

    Compared to the previous quarter, the NPL rate fell from 1.7% to 1.6%, while allowance coverage rose to 90% and to 177% when collateral was considered.

    Total allowances fell 18% from a year ago and 27% from the previous quarter to $164 million. Allowances for impaired assets amounted to 20 basis points of loans.

    The Common Equity Tier-1 ratio (CET-1) was little changed from the previous quarter at 14.0% as an increase in retained earnings was partially offset by the impact of loan growth.

    DBS has maintained its guidance for year and is expected to on track for full-year NIM of at least 1.85%.

    DBS CEO Piyush Gupta says, “With interest rates and allowance charges reverting to more normalised levels, and our capital base streamlined with the finalisation of regulatory requirements, the structural profitability of our franchise has been more clearly demonstrated with this quarter’s results. While we are keeping a watchful eye on how geopolitical trade tensions play out, the region’s economic fundamentals remain sound. Our pipeline is healthy and we expect to continue capturing business opportunities and delivering shareholder returns in the coming year.”
     
  10. sotong11

    sotong11 Well-Known Member

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    thank you bro NB... will play by the ear and see how things turn up tml...
     
  11. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Another illustration of why size matters.

    Stock A has been falling and falling from 3.95 and when it reached 3.70, it appeared to find support there.
    So Trader X who has a small army and can buy only 3 times bought some at 3.70.
    Trader Y who has an army 20 times bigger than Trader X... also bought at 3.70.
    The stock continues to fall and Trader X bought again a 2nd time at 3.60 and a 3rd and also his last time at 3.55.
    Trader Y also added at 3.60 and 3.55.
    After that, the stock continues to fall.
    Having exhausted his max 3 times of buying, Trader X couldnt do anything and is a spectator from that point onwards.
    Trader Y stopped buying to follow the stock down intending to wait for the stock to U-Turn first before adding.
    The stock then continues to fall to 3.50... then 3.40...then 3.30 and then bounced.
    Trader Y, with his much bigger army, then buys twice as much as what he had bought at 3.55, 3.60 and 3.70.
    As a result, his average price for all his shares was brought down to around 3.42.
    Stock A continues to recover and rose to 3.50. And then lose steam there.
    As Trader Y' s average entry price is 3.42, he sold at 3.49 and got out of this trade with a profit.
    But Trader X... his average entry price is at 3.61. And the price rebounded to only 3.50 and then stalled there.
    The next thing is the stock reversed course and started to fall again towards its Last Low at 3.30.
    Again, same stock, same timeframe, same market conditions but Trader X, hampered by his inability to keep averaging down
    was unable to exit from this trade as the price did not recover to let alone surpass his average entry price of 3.61. The rebound
    reached a high of 3.50 only. And so Trader X continued to be stuck in that stock.
    Trader Y on the other hand, with a much larger army which enabled him to add more at lower prices to achieve a much lower
    entry price, was able to exit from this trade with a profit even though the stock did not rebound back to 3.70.
     
  12. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    CMT...

    I am SHORT at 2.05, 2.06, 2.07 and 2.08.
    She may bounce to Last High at 2.12.
    If that should happen, SHORT some.
    After that if she falls, ADD SHORTs.
     
  13. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    My gutfeel is ...

    1. DBS will report another set of stunning results.
    2. More than 50% chance the price will gap up and run becoz monkey wants to sell some if not all and so will do a PUMP & DISTRIBUTE.
    3. But if the gap up is very big, likely the price will fall immediately when regular trading starts.
    4. UOB pn XD did not gap down by the same amount as the dividends. Something like gapped down 45 cts even though dividend was 65 cts.
    So same thing may happen to DBS.
    5. On XD, wait for the dust to settle first. Let those who want to sell, sell first. Then can look into a LONG trade for her resumption of her uptrend.
    6. XD on Thu, 3 May. So still have Mon, 30 Apr and Wed, 2 May to go LONG if you want to take up position before XD.
     
  14. sotong11

    sotong11 Well-Known Member

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    Bro NB...

    Tml morning.. we will see if DBS shoot up or not... if not, wil it be a down when it XD?

    yep taking note on ... CMT n SGX. THank you
     
  15. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Okay guys, here' s the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth.

    That you can bet your last dollar and your panties or underwear as well that it is true that when it comes to trading the stock market,
    the more money you have, the higher your probability of winning in this game. Let me use one simple example to prove to you what
    I just said. And I will also use DBS to illustrate my point since we are now very familiar with the recent price action of DBS.

    First, I set out the price action of DBS. In military jargon, this battle had several phases.

    1. She ran from 26.68 to hit a HIGH of 29.71 (26 Feb 2018). This was then the Last High.
    2. After that came the pullback from 29.71 to 27.85 (5 Mar 2018).
    3. Then came another spike from 27.85 to 29.19 (14 Mar 2018).
    4. And the spike ended there. So 29.19 became the new Last High and 29.71 became the Previous High.
    5. Then from 29.19, she came back down to 26.35 and found her handbrakes there.
    6. And finally from 26.35, she ran up all the way to retest and break Last High at 29.19...and also broke
    Previous High at 29.71 to close at 30.00.

    During Phase 1 and Phase 2 of the battle, we did not pay attention to DBS.
    It was during Phase 3 when she started her upmove from 27.85 that when she was at the 28.60 to 28.70 region that I highlighted
    this counter and recommended a BUY. Many here bought into DBS and were happily sitting on paper profits when she continued
    to rise and reached 29.19. Then came the dreadful part and which is instead of continuing to run towards 29.71, she reversed direction
    and started to fall. On hindsight, we now know she found a bottom at 26.35 and staged a spectacular U-Turn after that. It is this phase
    of the battle that I want to use to illustrate how the size of your army can have a dramatic impact on the outcome of your battle.

    Take Trader X who has a small army to play this game. When DBS reversed couse at 29.19 and started to fall, Trader X had already
    used up all his army and he has no soldiers left to average down. Whatever little troops he has left...he needed them to buffer his
    paper loss and at the back of his mind, he knew he could tahan only a drop of 50 cts. Any further drop beyond 50 cts means he has
    to cut or he will get a margin call. So we know what happened to Trader X. The pullback from 29.19 to 26.35 was a fall of $2.84.
    He could tahan a fall of only 50 cts. So he cut when the price fell by 50 cts to 28.69.

    Now we look at Trader Y who has a bigger army. Based on his calculations, he has enough troops to tahan a pullback of $3.50 from
    29.19... meaning the stock can drop up to 25.69 before he gets a margin call. So mindful that the stock could possibly pullback to
    25.80 to 26.40 region before she finds a bottom and turns back up, Trader Y told himself to observe a ceasefire --- no more adding
    to average down becoz he needs the rest of his troops to tahan a possible fall to 25.80 to 26.40 region. So he cant spare any more
    troops to add LONGs. He can only order a ceasefire and watch helplessly as the price drops and hope that a U-Turn will come before
    he runs out of troops to hold his LONGs bought at 28.60 to 29.10 region. For this trader, you all know the rest of the story. The price
    found a bottom at 26.35 which was within his capacity to tahan. So he didnt have to face a margin call. He lived long enough to see
    the stock U-Turned and went back up for him to sell all his positions at a profit at 29.95 to 30.00.

    Lastly, we look at Trader Z who is a bigtime trader with an extremely huge army to the tune of say, 10-million strong. When you have
    an army of this size, " worry" is a word which will not find its way into your mind. Becoz you know that for DBS, her primary direction is
    UP. There is no question whatsoever whether she will go back UP. The only question is how much money do you have to BUY and
    HOLD this stock long enough to see the day when she U-Turn and go back up to smash her Last High at 29.19 as well as her Previous
    High at 29.71 to test 30.00. With regard to DBS reaching 30.00, it is not a question of IF but one of WHEN. So Trader Z who knows he
    must buy as many DBS as possible and he has the army to fight this battle can do something which his huge army empowers him to do.
    And which is to keep adding LONGs at every say, 20 cts interval. Starting from 29.19, each time the stock falls by 20 cts, he will buy.
    Every 20 cts drop, he will keep buying. And not only keep buying but buy even more as the price falls lower. In other words, buy using
    a pyramid-shape approach... lesser at the top and more at the bottom with the most number of scrips at the base of the pyramid which
    is when the stock has bottomed out and U-Turned. So imagine Trader Z buying at every 20 cts interval from 29.19 to 26.35. Then when
    the stock has U-Turned at 26.35 and jumps to say 26.85...Trader Z Ka Ka buy 100 or 200 lots depending on the size of his army and
    continues to add more LONGs as the price recovers from 26.85 to 29.50 and then went on to reach 30.00. During the recovery phase
    of this battle, Trader Z sells all his holdings when the stock was on its way up from 29.80 to 30.00.

    As you can see... 3 traders here. Same stock. Same time frame. Same market conditions. But very different in the size of their armies.
    And a very stark difference in their respective outcomes of this battle too.

    Which is why to have a higher probability of success in this game, size really does matter. Period.
     
    sotong11 likes this.
  16. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    I also been waiting all day to buy at 29.60-sumtin or 29.70-sumtin but no chance.

    Sis Sotong...

    Can slowly queue at 2.07 to SHORT CMT.


    [​IMG]


    Notice that like clockwork, what goes up must come down holds true for this stock for the last 1 year already.
    The chart tells us what she is most likely to do next. The chart says she needs to go down the mountain to the village at
    the valley below to stock up on groceries, cosmetics, whisper, Kit Kat and Her World magazine. Which is why I have switched
    direction and ordered my submarine commanders to home in on the target.
     
  17. sotong11

    sotong11 Well-Known Member

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    congrates bro NB...

    i gone back to queue at 29.72 ... to see if i can get some today....
     
  18. sotong11

    sotong11 Well-Known Member

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    yep yep.. thank u for the note...

    today the range is 7.69 .... i queue ler...
     
  19. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Bro Plutus...

    Miss Hong Kong bely HIONG leh... 7.16 : 7.17... aa1aa3.gif
     
  20. plutus2

    plutus2 Well-Known Member

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    i still not playing with SEX, me cannot feel her
     
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