SMRT

Discussion in 'Acquistion Targets' started by zuolun, Mar 19, 2013.


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  1. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    SMRTA penny stock in the making

    Should a bearish breakout at 1.28 materialize; Interim TP 0.97.


    [​IMG]

    SMRT, SBS Transit fined total S$1.1m

    By Saifulbahri Ismail
    1 Oct 2013

    SINGAPORE: The Land Transport Authority (LTA) is imposing a total of S$1.1 million in financial penalties on train operators SMRT and SBS Transit.

    LTA is imposing financial penalties of S$860,000 on SMRT for four separate incidents that happened in 2012 and 2013.

    The heaviest penalty of S$300,000 is for the Newton station trackside fire incident in February this year.

    In that incident, SMRT detected a fire on electrical cables about 5 metres from the Newton station.

    Northbound train service between Marina Bay and Toa Payoh stations was disrupted for more than two hours.

    Nearly 18,000 passengers were affected.

    Forensic laboratory tests indicated that the cable fire could have started from exposed conductor wires and the wet conditions in the cable.

    The findings also showed it was a localised incident.

    In managing the incident, LTA said SMRT had committed several lapses. These include detraining passengers at Newton station rather than at an earlier station further away from the fire.

    During the incident, smoke was seen wafting onto the platform. LTA clarified that it was due to human error and not the fault of the ventilation system.

    SMRT was also slapped with a S$60,000 penalty for a train launching incident at Bukit Panjang LRT depot in July this year.

    In addition, SMRT will be penalised for two other incidents in 2012.

    In the first incident, LTA discovered that SMRT had failed to ensure timely rectification to two corroded sections of the Circle Line tracks.

    LTA will impose a financial penalty of S$250,000 on SMRT for breaching the licence conditions which require the operator to diligently inspect, maintain and repair the rail network.

    In another incident, SMRT staff failed to apply proper procedures while track works were carried being out at Ulu Pandan depot in December last year.

    This resulted in a section of the third rail being made "live", thus exposing workers, who were carrying out track works, to danger.

    For this, LTA will impose a penalty of S$250,000.

    Separately, LTA will also impose S$250,000 on the second train operator SBS Transit for a service disruption on the North East Line in June this year.

    In that incident, train services were disrupted on both ways between Woodleigh and Punggol stations for more than two hours.

    Nearly 55,000 passengers were affected.

    The total intended penalties of S$1.1 million will be donated to the Public Transport Fund to help needy families with transport fares.

    SMRT and SBS Transit were informed of the penalties on Tuesday, and they have two weeks to appeal against the fines.

    In a statement, SMRT said it acknowledged the fines imposed by LTA in response to the stated lapses in service and compliance with the regulations.

    SMRT added that it has reviewed the protocols and improved staff training.

    In addition, following the Newton fire incident in February, SMRT has been working closely with LTA and SCDF to re-evaluate fire plans and standing operational procedures for each station.

    In another statement, SBS Transit said it has further tightened its operating procedures to ensure that detrainment is strictly carried out within 30 minutes of any service stoppage.
     
  2. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    koaladreaming,

    Don't ever bet that these 2 public-listed transport companies under "Ah Gong", will lose money.

    Even if they really suffer heavy losses, "Ah Gong" is always there to rescue them with OPM.

    Bet. SMRT & ComfortDelGro, the latter is more diversified as it has ventured outside SG.

    If FMs die die need to pick/invest in tranport cos. in ST Index stocks, ComfortDelGro is a better choice than SMRT, as of now.
     
  3. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    SMRTDescending Triangle Breakout; Interim TP 1.52, next TP 1.325

    SMRT closed with a long black marubozu @ 1.415 (-0.065, -4.4%) with extremely high volume done at 6.03m shares on 2 May 2013.

    Immediate resistance @ 1.425, immediate support @ 1.35, next support @ 1.325.

    [​IMG]

    SMRT incurs 4Q losses of $12 million due to higher operating costs including salary adjustments

    By Christopher Tan
    Apr 30, 2013 8:32 AM

    Transport operator SMRT Corp incurred a loss of $12 million for the fourth quarter ended March 31, 2013. This compared with a profit of $13.9 million for the corresponding period last year.

    Chief executive Desmond Kuek attributed the loss to significantly higher operating costs, including salary adjustments for bus drivers and higher repair and maintenance costs for its rail business.

    He expects costs to continue rising.

    Nevertheless, SMRT is declaring a final dividend of 1.0 cent per share. Together with an interim payment of 1.5 cents, it brings total dividend for the year to 2.5 cents.


     
    Last edited: May 3, 2013
  4. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    DBSV's review on SMART on 16 Apr 2013

    FULLY VALUED @ S$1.515; TP of S$1.30 (12-month)

    STI : 3,284.37

    Free pre-peak morning MRT rides

    • Free travel on MRT trains for those who exit at 16
      city stations before 7.45am on weekdays
    • Government to fund this 1-year trial, starting 24
      Jun 13
    • No immediate impact on SMRT and CD
    • Maintain FULLY VALUED on SMRT on operational
      challenges; BUY CD for geographical exposure
    Free travel on MRT trains on weekday mornings.
    Singapore's Land Transport Authority (LTA) announced this
    morning that it will embark on a one-year trial starting from
    24 Jun 13 to provide free travel on the rail network for
    commuters who end their journey before 7.45am on
    weekdays at 16 designated MRT stations in the city area.
    In addition, commuters who exit these 16 stations between
    7.45am to 8am will be given a discount of up to 50 cents
    off their train fare. The government will be funding this
    trial.

    The objective of this trial is to encourage commuters to
    make changes to their travel schedule into the city area to
    spread out the morning peak hour crowds.

    What are the changes from the current scheme?
    Currently, a 50 cents discount is given for commuters who
    exit at 14 city stations before 7.45am from Mondays to
    Fridays (excluding public holidays). Refer to table below for
    a summary of changes.

    Our views:
    No immediate impact on SMRT and CD. As the trial will be
    funded by the government, (said to cost S$10m according
    to The Straits Times), we do not foresee any direct impact
    on SMRT or CD at this juncture arising from the provision of
    free travel and discounts during the aforementioned
    timings. However, it is expected that train trips will be
    increased during this period to shorten waiting times, and
    therefore should increase operating costs marginally.
    On a positive note, this may alter travel patterns, relief
    pressure on peak hour travel and may also improve overall
    public transport ridership.

    Maintain FULLY VALUED on SMRT, BUY CD. We
    maintain our Fully Valued recommendation on SMRT
    with a TP of S$1.30. We continue to see operating cost
    challenges, which could put pressure its DPS. SMRT is
    expected to release its FY13 results on 30 April and with
    the recent profit warning on 4Q loss arising from higher
    operating costs and write-offs, we expect a dismal set of
    results and downside to our current forecasts. We prefer
    CD for its geographical diversification and lower
    valuation.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  5. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    SMRTDescending Triangle Breakout; interim TP 1.52, next TP 1.325

    SMRT closed unchanged with a dragonfly doji @ 1.51 on 25 Apr 2013.

    Immediate support @ 1.50, immediate resistance @ 1.53.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  6. Milo-Dino

    Milo-Dino Well-Known Member

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    Occupation:
    Accountant
    Location:
    Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
    waiting to collect some with cpf...
     
  7. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    SMRTDescending Triangle Breakout; interim TP 1.52, next TP 1.335

    SMRT closed at day's low with a black marubozu @ 1.51 (-0.01, -0.7%) on 18 Apr 2013.

    Immediate support @ 1.40, immediate resistance @ 1.535.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  8. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Free travel on MRT trains before 745am from June 24

    16 Apr 2013

    Commuters who take the MRT to the city area before 745am on weekdays will be able to travel free of charge from June 24 onwards.

    MRT commuters must end their journey before 7.45am on Mondays to Fridays (excluding pubic holidays) at 16 designated MRT stations in the city area.

    The 16 designated stations are Bugis, Chinatown, City Hall, Clarke Quay, Dhoby Ghaut, Lavender, Orchard, Outram Park, Raffles Place, Somerset, Tanjong Pagar, Bayfront, Bras Basah, Esplanade, Marina Bay and Promenade. The train journey must not begin at any of these 16 designated stations.

    Commuters who exit at these stations between 7.45am and 8am will be given a discount of up to 50 cents off their train fare. The Government will be funding this one-year trial.

    The one-year trial was announced by Transport Minister Lui Tuck Yew on Tuesday morning at Raffles Place station. The trial is expected to cost S$10 million and will be funded by the government.

    The objective of the trial is to encourage commuters who are able and willing to make changes to their travel schedule to travel earlier into the city area before the peak hour.

    In a media statement, the LTA said this would help spread out the morning peak hour crowds to the pre-peak period, and ease the crowding situation on city-bound stretches of the MRT network.
     
  9. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Free MRT travel for early birds

    16 Apr 2013 8:32 AM

    SINGAPORE: Authorities in Singapore have announced perks to encourage pre-peak hour travel by MRT.

    Commuters who end their journeys at 16 designated MRT stations in the city area before 7.45am on weekdays will enjoy free travel.

    Those that exit between 7.45am and 8am will be given a discount of up to 50 cents.

    This one year trial by the Land Transport Authority will begin on June 24 and will be funded by the government.

    The objective of the trial is to encourage commuters to travel early and spread out peak hour crowds.
     
  10. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Maybank KE says sell SMRT as it ended the year with a whimper

    05 April 2013

    Ø The previously unimaginable has happened. SMRT is expecting its first ever quarterly loss in its history for 4QFY3/13. This loss guidance validates our sustained SELL call, and we are reiterating it with a reduced, street-low target price of SGD1.19.

    Ø SMRT has been a dividend darling in the past, with stable and growing earnings providing shareholders with a steady stream of dividends to look forward to.

    However those days of stability and certainty look to be coming to an end, as our final dividend forecast for FY3/13 is correspondingly cut by 30% to SG 3.5 cts /share.

    Ø In light of such firm guidance on the challenges ahead for land transport operators like SMRT, we are slashing our earnings forecasts by 25% for FY3/13 and ~10% for FY3/14-15. Our target price is reduced to SGD1.19, as we maintain our valuation peg to 15x FY3/14 PER, a full
    standard deviation below mean.

    SELL SMRT.
     
  11. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    OSK/DMG's review on SMRT; SELL TP S$1.37

    By Joshua Low
    2 Apr 2013

    Target SGD1.37
    Previous SGD1.43
    Price SGD1.54

    Cutting Target Price On Profit Warning

    SMRT has announced that it is expecting to report a net loss for 4QFY13 due to deteriorating profitability as well as a SGD17m impairment of goodwill in its associate Shenzhen ZONA Transportation Group. We are lowering our FY13 and FY14 earnings by 21.1% and 7.2% respectively. Maintain SELL with lower TP of SGD1.37 (from SGD1.43 previously) based on DCF. This implies a FY14 P/E of 19.9x.

    SGD17m impairment may not be its last. The main reason for an expected loss making 4QFY13 for SMRT is due to a SGD17m impairment of goodwill in SMRT’s associate Shenzhen ZONA Transportation Group. Its operating conditions in China have been challenging and management felt it was appropriate to report impairment at this point in time. SMRT had also previously reported SGD21.7m of impairment back in FY12 due to adverse impact by substantial increases in bus operating costs which was less than offset by fare hikes. Going forward, we do not rule out further impairment charges should bus operating conditions both locally and abroad remain weak.

    MRT average daily ridership declines in Jan-Feb 13. MRT average daily ridership declined by 0.7% for Jan – Feb 13, compared to a growth of 9.7% and 11.8% for the same periods in 2012 and 2011 respectively. The declining train ridership numbers are not a positive for SMRT as we estimate that a 5% decline in total annual ridership will result in a 28% fall in FY13 PAT.

    Maintain SELL. Expect further earnings cut from the street. SMRT does not appear attractive, trading at 22.4x FY14 (FYE Mar) P/E vs ComfortDelGro’s 15.8x FY13 P/E. We see little potential catalysts for a share price upside given the cost pressure concerns SMRT is facing.

    DMG's review on SMRT; SELL TP S$1.43

    By Joshua Low
    1 Apr 2013

    SMRT announced that it is expecting to report a net loss for 4QFY13 (financial year end Mar), due to deteriorating profitability with increasing operating costs, coupled with a lack of corresponding fare adjustments. SMRT will also report a SGD17m impairment of goodwill in its associate Shenzhen ZONA Transportation Group, but will however still be profitable for FY13. SMRT had in Jan 13 indicated that profitability for 4QFY13 and the next twelve months will deteriorate due to higher operating costs, in particular for the fare-related businesses. In early Mar 13, SMRT had announced a progressive revision of its non-executive wage scale, excluding its Bus Captains which led us to downgrade our call on the counter to a SELL (from NEUTRAL). We are maintaining our SELL recommendation though we are looking to revise our FY13 estimates. Our current TP is S$1.43.
     
  12. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    SMRTDescending Triangle Breakout; interim TP 1.52, next TP 1.335

    SMRT closed at day's low with a black marubozu @ 1.54 (-0.04, -2.5%) with high vol. on 1 Apr 2013.

    Immediate support @ 1.53, immediate resistance @ 1.545.

    PROFIT GUIDANCE FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER ENDING 31 MARCH 2013

    [​IMG]

    SMRT (weekly)Trading in a downward sloping channel

    Chart pattern, rounding top, if support @ 1.53 breaks; TP 1.335.

    [​IMG]

    DMG's review on SMRT; SELL TP S$1.43

    By Joshua Low
    1 Apr 2013

    SMRT announced that it is expecting to report a net loss for 4QFY13 (financial year end Mar), due to deteriorating profitability with increasing operating costs, coupled with a lack of corresponding fare adjustments. SMRT will also report a SGD17m impairment of goodwill in its associate Shenzhen ZONA Transportation Group, but will however still be profitable for FY13. SMRT had in Jan 13 indicated that profitability for 4QFY13 and the next twelve months will deteriorate due to higher operating costs, in particular for the fare-related businesses. In early Mar 13, SMRT had announced a progressive revision of its non-executive wage scale, excluding its Bus Captains which led us to downgrade our call on the counter to a SELL (from NEUTRAL). We are maintaining our SELL recommendation though we are looking to revise our FY13 estimates. Our current TP is S$1.43.
     
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2013
  13. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    If Singapore's population increases to 6.9m people by 2030...SMRT huat argh!!

    [video=youtube;Fk2R_mqV4ts]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fk2R_mqV4ts[/video]

    [​IMG]
     
  14. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    DMG's review on SMRT; SELL TP S$1.43

    By Joshua Low
    1 Apr 2013

    SMRT announced that it is expecting to report a net loss for 4QFY13 (financial year end Mar), due to deteriorating profitability with increasing operating costs, coupled with a lack of corresponding fare adjustments. SMRT will also report a SGD17m impairment of goodwill in its associate Shenzhen ZONA Transportation Group, but will however still be profitable for FY13. SMRT had in Jan 13 indicated that profitability for 4QFY13 and the next twelve months will deteriorate due to higher operating costs, in particular for the fare-related businesses. In early Mar 13, SMRT had announced a progressive revision of its non-executive wage scale, excluding its Bus Captains which led us to downgrade our call on the counter to a SELL (from NEUTRAL). We are maintaining our SELL recommendation though we are looking to revise our FY13 estimates. Our current TP is S$1.43.
     
  15. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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  16. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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  17. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    For weak stocks trading in a downward sloping channel; rounding bottom has more upside than rounding top:

    1. SMRT (weekly) chart pattern, rounding top, if support @ 1.53 breaks; TP 1.335.

    2. Wilmar (weekly) chart pattern, rounding bottom + a handle = C&H formation, if resistance @ 3.92 breaks; TP 4.85.

    SMRT (weekly)Trading in a downward sloping channel

    [​IMG]

    Wilmar (weekly) 25 Feb 2013

    [​IMG]

    [video=youtube;GTmnN4u4Y5k]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTmnN4u4Y5k[/video]

    圆形顶/圆形底 (Rounding Top / Rounding Bottom)

    圆形顶,即碟形顶(saucer top),属于转向形态,显示大跌市即将来临,后市跌势将会很大。

    顾名思义,圆形顶的形态特征是倒转半圆形或碟形,成交量在顶部形成后,开始逐步减少。凡确认圆 形顶见顶形态 ,投资者宜尽快沽货离场,以免所持股份变成“蟹货”。

    圆形顶的形成,是股价经过一段升势后,升势开始放缓,每次新高位较上一个高位距离不远。由于升 势放缓,部分 先知先觉的投资者便撤退离场,令卖方力量增加。淡友先在圆形顶部与好友势力对抗,其后在好友数 目逐步减少下 ,淡友就得以渐渐控制局面。股价遂持续下滑,直至淡友全面控制局面后,市场需求转为供过于求, 跌势才会较急 。由于形成过程稍长,有时需数月始完成圆形顶。

    个别情况下,即使圆形顶形成,股价也不会实时急跌,仅会反复徘徊,横行发展,这徘徊区称为“碟 柄”或“碗柄 ” 。但由于跌势已成,该“碟柄”或“碗柄”一般很快便被突破,股价会转而向下,朝预期中的下跌趋 势而行。

    圆形底,又称碟形底(saucer bottom),属于见底形态,显示跌势已逆转,大升市即将来临,后市升势可以很大。其走势及趋向,与圆形 顶刚好相反。

    顾名思义,圆形底的形态特征是倒转半圆形或碟形,成交量在底部形成后,开始逐步减少。凡确认圆 形底见底形态 ,投资者宜待圆形底升势转急初期,才追买股票。

    圆形底的形成过程如下:当股价经过一段跌势后,跌势开始放缓,沽售(或沽空)股票的成交量开始 减少。每次新 低位较上一个低位距离不远。由于跌势放缓,部分先知先觉者开始趁低吸纳,收集手法普遍是有耐性 地限价收集, 淡友力量因屡攻不下而开始减少,令圆形底部的成交量亦减少。其后好友数目逐步增加,渐控制局面 ,股价才能逐 步上扬。及好友完全控制局面,市场需求转为求过于供,升势方转急。由于形成过程稍久,往往需时 数月始完成圆 形底形态。

    个别情况下,即使圆形底形成,股价并不会实时急升,仅会反复横行徘徊,这徘徊区称为“碟柄”或 “碗柄”。但 当升势既成,这“碟柄”或“碗柄”很快会被突破,股价转而向上,朝预期的上升趋势而行。
     
  18. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    SMRTBearish Symmetrical Triangle Breakout; interim TP 1.565

    SMRT closed with a spinning top @ 1.58 (-0.005, -0.3%) on 18 Mar 2013.

    Immediate support @ 1.565, immediate resistance @ 1.60.

    SMRT broke the long-term horizontal support @ 1.60, it has been trading in a prolonged downtrend; expect more downside than upside.

    [​IMG]

    SMRT (weekly)Trading in a downward sloping channel

    [​IMG]
     
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