Market Psychology

Discussion in 'Acquistion Targets' started by zuolun, Nov 4, 2012.


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  1. Alcorbsoobe

    Alcorbsoobe Guest

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  4. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Whatever goods and services are provided, they must be paid for by someone; you don't get something for nothing.

    There's no such thing as a free lunch, if you pay peanuts you get monkeys.

    There is a Chinese saying: 施比受更有福

    English translation: It's more blessed to give than to receive.
     
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2013
  5. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    "looking at charts to predict what is the next move may prove to be futile. "

    If you didn't use the correct chart which the big monkey is using, the next move is 100% futile.
     
  6. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    "Chart got no more relevant for the time being."

    This is an outright insult to all chartists!
     
  7. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    The rolling rock is best to illustrate the current situation.

    1. An initial bearish signal started with a pullback on extremely strong uptrend stocks.

    2. A follow-thru sharp correction in stock prices coupled with extremely high vol. indicating a potential bearish trend reversal.
    (Extremely high volume though preferable but not required as the share price will fall/collapse by its own weight.)

    3. When stock prices continue to trade at LH and LL, it's a confirmation of an early downtrend.

    [​IMG]
     
  8. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    STI may hit the 200d SMA strong support @ 3181 by 22nd Jun 2013.

    (Although the plunge started 1 month earlier on 23rd May 2013, the 2013 Bradley Turn Dates have been eerily accurate since mid-Dec 2012.)

    Why the 200d SMA is important:

    The Simple Moving Average (SMA) is the average price of an asset over a certain period of time. It is calculated by adding up the closing prices over a certain number of time periods, and then dividing by that number of time periods. SMA’s are used to measure momentum. The most watched SMA is the 200 day, it is widely recognized as the dividing line between bull and bear territory.

    Below 200d SMA = BEAR, SELL/SHORT

    Above 200d SMA = BULL, BUY/LONG

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Straits Times IndexTrading in an upward sloping channel

    STI has a hammer @ 3317.17 (-50.3, -1.5%) on 30 May 2013 at 11.35am.

    Immediate resistance @ 3322, immediate support @ 3300, next support @ 3270, strong support @ 3181, the 200d SMA.

    [​IMG]

     
    Last edited: May 30, 2013
  9. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Let me tell you a story between a smart thief and a not-so-smart thief.

    Ah Lee and Ah Tan both got caught and went to jail for stealing a pig.

    The jail term for such petty theft is a standard 6 months imprisonment.

    They were put into the same prison cell and Ah Lee found out that...

    While he stole and sold a big fat pig for a hefty sum of 300 dollars...

    Ah Tan had committed the same crime and given the same jail term as him;

    But what he stole was just a tiny piglet which he sold it for only 20 dollars! ....Aiyoh...[​IMG]

    The moral of the story: "The risk-reward ratio is unattractive."

    Anyone who has the ability to consistently con Singaporeans millions of dollars in the long run, must be someone with special talent.

    Unhealthy Heterosexual Lifestyle: Pastor Ho Yeow Sun Makes Asian Sexy Good In The US.

    [​IMG]

    Singapore Law Professor Convicted of Sex-For-Grades Corruption

    By Andrea Tan
    May 28, 2013 12:58 PM GMT+0800

    National University of Singapore associate professor of law Tey Tsun Hang was convicted of six charges of obtaining favors including sex from a female student in return for giving her better grades.

    “It’s clear that the accused abused his position as a professor,” Chief District Judge Tan Siong Thye said in handing down his verdict at a Singapore subordinate court today. He described the student as naive and vulnerable.

    Tey, a former district judge, had said he was in a consensual relationship with the student. He argued in court that he was coerced by officers of Singapore’s Corrupt Practices Investigation Bureau into giving them statements confessing to corruptly seeking gifts including a Mont Blanc pen and sex from the student.

    The case is Prosecutor v. Tey Hsun Hang. DAC027011/2012. The Subordinate Courts of Singapore.
     
  10. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    simplemind,

    In a super bad day with STI down > 60 pts today, ISDN is still +ve and even hits high of 0.945, the powerful major LONG monkey has demonstrated its strong support to this stock.

    It's the same logic as Olam, you only need a major monkey to standby and flex its financial muscles to squeeze the SHORTs and all is well.

     
    Last edited: May 23, 2013
  11. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    The only disadvantage of trading extremely strong uptrend stocks in a volatile market is that,

    when the shit hits the fan without early warning, everyone heads for the exit causing prices to collapse rapidly.

    Examples:

    1. F&N
    2. AMEDIA
    3. Gold
    4. Copper

    Let me tell you a story between a smart thief and a not-so-smart thief.

    Ah Lee and Ah Tan both got caught and went to jail for stealing a pig.

    The jail term for such petty theft is a standard 6 months imprisonment.

    They were put into the same prison cell and Ah Lee found out that...

    While he stole and sold a big fat pig for a hefty sum of 300 dollars...

    Ah Tan had committed the same crime and given the same jail term as him;

    But what he stole was just a tiny piglet which he sold it for only 20 dollars! ....Aiyoh...[​IMG]

    The moral of the story: "The risk-reward ratio is unattractive."

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  12. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Five Really Dumb Money Moves You've Got to Avoid

    By Brett Arends
    31 March 2013

    You know the smartest things to do with your money. But what are the worst moves? What should you avoid?

    Weirdly enough, they are things that a surprising number of people are still doing—even though they probably know, in their heart of hearts, how foolish they really are.

    Any list is going to be incomplete. But here are five to avoid.

    1. Reaching for yield

    What this country needs is a good 5% certificate of deposit. Instead the collapse in interest rates, and the Federal Reserve's policy of keeping them down for as long as possible, is driving people crazy—especially people who need to generate income from their investments.

    In these circumstances, people start to do really foolish things in the desperate hunt for higher interest rates. That includes taking on crazy amounts of risk, or investing in complex products they don't understand, in the hope of higher yields. The Fed is producing a bull market in scams, Ponzi schemes and associated rackets.

    The Securities and Exchange Commission recently warned about an epidemic of bogus high-yield "corporate promissory notes" being marketed to investors by scam artists.

    The Wall Street Journal's Jason Zweig highlighted the woes of those sold complex "reverse convertibles," a legal but complicated product with embedded risks. Eric Lewis, chief investment officer of Bedrock Capital Management in Los Altos, Calif., suggests that if you can't explain an investment to a friend, including what might go wrong, you should think twice.

    A high-yield bond fund such as the iShares High Yield Corporate Bond exchange-traded fund (HYG), which lends money to risky companies, sports a yield of about 5%. That's the maximum yield you can earn without taking on much more risk.

    2. Going into the poor house to send Junior to a country-club college

    Over the past 40 years, the cost of tuition and fees at a private university has tripled—after accounting for inflation. The cost of a public university has quadrupled.

    The cost of getting a bachelor's degree has become a scandal in this country. Students spend $160,000 on a four-year degree and the results are too often questionable.

    Financial planners strongly advise parents against plundering their own retirement savings, which they are likely to need, to pay for this.

    Admittedly, a degree has become a protection racket—you can't get a job without one, but there are fewer jobs for those with them. But the smart move for the budget-constrained is to get a bachelor's degree at a public university. The tuition and fees average less than $9,000 a year instead of $30,000 at a private college.

    3. Owning stock in your employer

    This is one of the silliest and riskiest moves any investor can make. If the company hits trouble, you get whacked twice. You can lose your job and your savings—all in one fell swoop. Ask anyone who worked for Enron…or Lehman Brothers.

    The law, amazingly, actually encourages this crazy move. While employers' 401(k) plans are subject to punitive regulations, lest they allow you to take on too much "risk," employers are allowed to offer their own stock among the investment options. Many do.

    The Employee Benefit Research Institute says that the percentage of 401(k) assets held in employers' stock has been halved since 2000, but the numbers are still alarming. Furthermore, it's the youngest workers—those best able to take a gamble—who are shunning their employers' company stock.

    At companies where the 401(k) plan offers the option, workers aged 40 or over typically hold about 20% of their entire 401(k) account in the company's stock, according to EBRI data. Crazy.

    4. Taking Social Security too early

    If you can afford to delay taking your Social Security retirement benefit, do.

    Someone earning $50,000 a year who starts claiming Social Security as soon as he or she is able, age 62, will typically collect a monthly check of about $1,000, according to the Social Security Administration. If they wait until they are 70, that amount would double.

    Taking Social Security too early, or without thinking through the consequences, is one of the biggest financial blunders people can make—roughly on a par with buying tech stocks in 2000 or a Las Vegas condo in 2006. The lure of getting money early can blind people to the big cost down the road.

    (Many retirees may not have much of a choice. Hard labor at low pay over a lifetime takes its toll on a person. Also, many companies all but force older workers into early retirements.)

    In any case, it doesn't take more than just a few years before the total money accrued with the higher, later benefits surpasses the total earned starting at the earlier retirement age.

    But that understates the bigger issue. Social Security is insurance. For many retirees, the big risk isn't that they will run out of money before they turn 70, but after 85. According to the Centers for Disease Control, more than half of women currently age 65 will live to 85 or longer, and three out of eight men.

    David Blanchett, head of retirement research for financial research firm Morningstar, says it makes sense for women, married couples and those with good health to wait longer for a bigger paycheck.

    5. Buying long-term bonds

    A surprising number of people still subscribe to the flawed and circular argument that bonds, including long-term government bonds, are "safe." In reality, bonds—especially long-term government bonds—are the rare example of a bubble that has been explicitly declared.

    The Fed is openly printing money and using it to buy up such bonds, driving up the price and driving down the interest rates, in order to help the economy. There is no dispute about this. It's public policy.

    A 30-year Treasury bond currently sports an interest rate of just 3.1%. That's barely half a percentage point above long-term inflation forecasts. Based on history, the yield should be at least 4.5%, or two percentage points above inflation.

    Thirty-year Treasury inflation-protected securities, known as TIPS, sport a "real" or inflation-adjusted yield of 0.6% a year. Again, it should be 2%.

    The only reason to buy such bonds in any quantity is to gamble on a 1930s-style depression and world-wide deflation. Such bonds are a gamble, not a safe haven.
     
  13. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]

    It is precisely the same reason why DUMB FUNDS did the massive sell-off on F&N.

    No Funds would want to sell F&N big times b4 the show-hand. :laugh4:

     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2013
  14. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    $1.50 chicken rice brings in tidy profit

    To earn $6k a month, stall buys supplies in bulk, stays open longer

    By Jessica Lim
    Apr 20, 2013

    A PLATE of roasted chicken rice at 820 Hainanese Chicken Rice in Tampines costs $1.50 - a rock-bottom price for the dish.

    But despite this, owner Tam Mee Chan turns a profit of at least $6,000 a month.

    This is despite raising the price of the meal from $1 in 1992, to $1.30 in 2008, then to $1.50 in 2011 due to rising costs.

    Her secret - selling a large number of plates at lower prices, bulk-buying ingredients at discounted prices, cooking chickens from scratch and her roll-up-her-sleeves attitude.

    The 45-year-old closes her stall only two days a month - every alternate Monday - and wakes up at 6am to cook from scratch.

    'We sell a lot and our attraction is our low price,' she said, adding that buying pre-cooked chickens is more expensive. 'We need to hire only two part-timers. That saves us some money.'

    A plate of chicken rice is typically priced at $2.50.

    Madam Tam, who runs the stall with her husband, sells about $1,000 worth of food a day, equal to more than 650 plates of her chicken rice.

    Retail analysts said that there is no magic bullet. A hawker stall selling $1.50 chicken rice, they said, could be more profitable than one selling the dish for double the price.

    It is all about the business model and striking the right balance, said Ms Sarah Lim, a senior retail lecturer at Singapore Polytechnic. She said 820 Hainanese Chicken Rice is trumping not just other chicken rice stalls but also stalls that sell more expensive dishes.

    'Selling at lower prices means thinner margins, but a stall may sell many plates. They earn by volume,' said Ms Lim. 'It's all about striking a good balance between pricing and demand.'

    Many other factors could affect pricing, she said, such as the presence of competitors nearby and how much they charge, the affluence of the neighbourhood and overall costs.

    Madam Tam's story is a glimmer of hope in a tough industry with hawkers caught between rising costs and the public's desire for hawker fare to remain cheap and good.

    A check by The Straits Times with 35 hawkers at 17 non-air-conditioned eateries found 23 of them were wary of raising prices despite being squeezed by higher costs.

    A recent survey by the Consumers Association of Singapore of 541 non-air-conditioned eateries supported this.

    It found that more vendors were charging more, but that the most common prices found for chicken rice ($2.50), plain prata (80 cents) and chicken nasi briyani ($4.50) remained the same.

    One hawker who is straining to hold the prices of his food is Mr E.K. Ong, 51, who owns an economical bee hoon stall called Lai Cheng Shu Shi at a hawker centre in Jurong. He earns a profit of about $3,000 a month now, down from about $4,000 two years ago.

    The prices of several of his ingredients, he said, have doubled over the past two years. Luncheon meat costs him $44 a carton now, up from $24 a carton in 2011, he claims.

    The price of a plate of his plain bee hoon, however, has stayed at 80 cents for the past six years. '

    We absorb the increased prices. I cannot cut corners, or I won't have customers. I want to increase the price but I don't know how to,' he said, adding that there are a lot of competitors.

    Over at a Bukit Merah hawker centre, Madam Puan Mui Tian, 54, who owns Nan Heng Hainanese Chicken Rice, said she has not increased the price of her $3 chicken rice with vegetables for the past 20 years.

    The stall turns a profit of $1,000 a month, 20 per cent lower than in 2010 due to rising costs of ingredients.

    Asked why she did not raise prices, she said: 'Human traffic is bad. Bukit Merah is also a mature estate and residents are not that rich.

    'I chose to be a hawker even though life is hard. At least it's better than working as a cleaner. They get even less.'

    Twelve of the 35 hawkers The Straits Times spoke to had raised their prices in the past year. But even then, some are struggling to turn a good profit.

    At Fatman Satay at Old Airport Road Food Centre, Mr Hadi Tarmandi takes home slightly more than $1,000 a month after subtracting costs. His brother, who runs the business with him, takes home another $1,000.

    The satay stall, one of several at the Government-owned hawker centre, charges 50 cents a stick - the only item it sells.

    When The Straits Times visited them at dinner time on Thursday, only about five customers put in an order within the hour.

    Mr Hadi, a father of two, said the cost of ingredients has gone up by 30 per cent since 2009. The 59-year-old increased prices to 50 cents from 40 cents in January after other stalls raised their prices.

    'Look how few customers we have now. All the satay stalls here charge 50 cents a stick. If we increase the price, no one will buy ours,' he said.

    The consumer price index (CPI) illustrates the tight spot that many cooked food sellers here are in.

    The CPI, a measurement of inflation, shows that hawker food prices went up by 2 per cent last year from 2011. The CPI for all items went up by 4.6 per cent in the same period.

    There are about 2,500 non-air-conditioned eateries around Singapore.

    The Retail Price Watch Group, set up in early 2011 to keep a close watch on excessive price increase for daily necessities, told The Straits Times that while hawker prices have generally increased, there are still stalls offering value for money.

    The group's secretariat called on the public 'to shop around and patronise food stalls that are able to offer food at lower prices'.

    'This will encourage food stalls to provide their customers with the best value for money,' it said.
     
  15. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    simplemind,

    "Learn to take losses. The most important thing in making money is not letting losses get out of hand" — Marty Schwartz

    "OLD SOLDIERS NEVER DIE"

    [video=youtube;jGdHqm6bfew]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGdHqm6bfew[/video]
     
  16. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Let me tell you a story between a smart thief and a not-so-smart thief.

    Ah Lee and Ah Tan both got caught and went to jail for stealing a pig.

    The jail term for such petty theft is a standard 6 months imprisonment.

    They were put into the same prison cell and Ah Lee found out that...

    While he stole and sold a big fat pig for a hefty sum of 300 dollars...

    Ah Tan had committed the same crime and given the same jail term as him;

    But what he stole was just a tiny piglet which he sold it for only 20 dollars! ....Aiyoh...[​IMG]

    [video=youtube;JI9gPSymfhY]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JI9gPSymfhY[/video]

     
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2013
  17. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    simplemind,

    This is how the 5 uptrend stocks look like when they're turned upside down:

    1. SuntecREIT.
    2. CapitaComm.
    3. Starhub.
    4. Ezion Holdings.
    5. ST Engineering.

    The chart patterns showed that they're extremely overbought, except CapitaComm (ref. to the OBV indicator).

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

     
  18. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    simplemind,

    The 5 uptrend stocks mentioned by nottibird below have identical chart patterns.

    If you rotate these charts upside down, you'll understand why SMM's share price is going down and down the longkang although it's extremely oversold.

    The reverse is true for SuntecREIT, CapitaComm, Starhub, Ezion Holdings and ST Engineering, which are extremely overbought yet their share prices are going up and up non-stop.

    It's the same logic why the Singapore residential property prices (pte & HDB) rocketed sky-high non-stop.

    1. SuntecREIT.
    2. CapitaComm.
    3. Starhub.
    4. Ezion Holdings.
    5. ST Engineering.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  19. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    nottibird,

    This is a good quick-in-quick-out Intraday Trading Strategy;

    Applicable to almost all uptrend stocks — inclusive of the following 5 stocks you had mentioned earlier.

    1. SuntecREIT.
    2. CapitaComm.
    3. Starhub.
    4. Ezion Holdings.
    5. ST Engineering.

     
  20. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    To make a profit you need to not only BUY at the right time but also SELL at the right time.

    WATANABE

    [video=youtube;ENlMI6NE-ik]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENlMI6NE-ik[/video]

    WATANABE's long position in US$ reminds me of my ex-co's dealer, Bambang a street-smart big "tau kay" in Indonesia.

    He only had primary education in Bahasa Indonesia and he could only speak and write broken English when doing business in S'pore.

    Prior to the 1997 AFC, in 1996, he flew to S'pore to ask my Ang Moh boss to be his guarantor to open a current a/c in US$ with Standard Chartered Bank.

    His main purpose was to sell Indonesian rupiah for US$ and then parked the money in S'pore banks as soon as possible.

    After he had opened his US$ a/c, he quickly deposited substantial amount of money into the a/c progressively, b4 the crisis.

    The exchange rate was US$1 = 2,380 Indonesian rupiah July 1997 prior to the crisis; it was devalued to US$1 = 14,150 Indonesian rupiah in July 1998.

    I didn't know when and at what exchange rate Bambang had bought back Indonesian rupiah with the US$ parked in S'pore;

    and then re-converted Indonesian rupiah back to US$ and re-parked it in his US$ a/c again, then.

    All I heard from my Ang Moh boss years later was that, Bambang made alot of money from the currency swap(s);

    and he had magnified his profits many times by purchasing 4 units of GCB in S'pore with solid cash, at distressed prices, during the 1997 AFC.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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