Chart Examples

Discussion in 'Acquistion Targets' started by zuolun, Dec 26, 2012.


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  1. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    If you're a member of shareInvestor.com, you get good discounts to subscribe for a software called "Consensus Estimates".

    It's quite useful to gauge the overall trend and sentiments of a specific stock.

    [​IMG]
     
  2. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    nottibird,

    STI has a complex H&S chart pattern similar to Toyota's chart dated 28 May 2010 (see below).

    Observations and comments on STI:
    1. The initial bearish signal was a long black marubozu with extremely high vol. which appeared on 23 May 2013.
    2. A mini-bear flag was broken convincingly with a long black marubozu closing @ 3367.47 (-38.61, -1.1%) on 29 May 2013.
    3. On 30 May 2013, STI closed with a long-tailed hammer @ 3336.01 (-31.46, -0.93%) indicating that a short-term technical rebound is imminent.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  3. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    STI may hit the 200d SMA strong support @ 3181 by 22nd Jun 2013.

    (Although the plunge started 1 month earlier on 23rd May 2013, the 2013 Bradley Turn Dates have been eerily accurate since mid-Dec 2012.)

    Why the 200d SMA is important:

    The Simple Moving Average (SMA) is the average price of an asset over a certain period of time. It is calculated by adding up the closing prices over a certain number of time periods, and then dividing by that number of time periods. SMA’s are used to measure momentum. The most watched SMA is the 200 day, it is widely recognized as the dividing line between bull and bear territory.

    Below 200d SMA = BEAR, SELL/SHORT

    Above 200d SMA = BULL, BUY/LONG

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Straits Times IndexTrading in an upward sloping channel

    STI has a hammer @ 3317.17 (-50.3, -1.5%) on 30 May 2013 at 11.35am.

    Immediate resistance @ 3322, immediate support @ 3300, next support @ 3270, strong support @ 3181, the 200d SMA.

    [​IMG]

     
  4. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    It's interesting to see 2 uncorrelated stocks having similar chart pattern. :001_smile:

    F&N Vs AAPL dated 7 May 2012

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

     
    Last edited: May 26, 2013
  5. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Healthway's chart pattern is similar to GuocoLeisure; its crucial resistance is @ 0.121.

    It means a bullish breakout convincingly above 0.121 with extremely high vol. is a decisive/confirmed BUY signal; an unconfirmed chart pattern has no further meaning.

    Stocks that exhibit certain chart patterns (Cup and Handle, Double Bottom and Flat Base) can lead to strong price appreciation when they breakout on strong volume.

    HealthwayRounding Bottom formation

    [​IMG]

     
  6. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Stocks that exhibit certain chart patterns (Cup and Handle, Double Bottom and Flat Base) can lead to strong price appreciation when they breakout on strong volume.

    GuocoLeisureBull Flag Breakout; TP S$1

    GuocoLeisure closed with a white marubozu @ 0.955 (+0.08, +9.1%) on 23 Apr 2013.

    Immediate support 0.92, immediate resistance 1.00.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    圆形顶/圆形底 (Rounding Top / Round Bottom)

    圆形顶,即碟形顶(saucer top),属于转向形态,显示大跌市即将来临,后市跌势将会很大。

    顾名思义,圆形顶的形态特征是倒转半圆形或碟形,成交量在顶部形成后,开始逐步减少。凡确认圆 形顶见顶形态 ,投资者宜尽快沽货离场,以免所持股份变成“蟹货”。

    圆形顶的形成,是股价经过一段升势后,升势开始放缓,每次新高位较上一个高位距离不远。由于升 势放缓,部分 先知先觉的投资者便撤退离场,令卖方力量增加。淡友先在圆形顶部与好友势力对抗,其后在好友数 目逐步减少下 ,淡友就得以渐渐控制局面。股价遂持续下滑,直至淡友全面控制局面后,市场需求转为供过于求, 跌势才会较急 。由于形成过程稍长,有时需数月始完成圆形顶。

    个别情况下,即使圆形顶形成,股价也不会实时急跌,仅会反复徘徊,横行发展,这徘徊区称为“碟 柄”或“碗柄 ” 。但由于跌势已成,该“碟柄”或“碗柄”一般很快便被突破,股价会转而向下,朝预期中的下跌趋 势而行。

    圆形底,又称碟形底(saucer bottom),属于见底形态,显示跌势已逆转,大升市即将来临,后市升势可以很大。其走势及趋向,与圆形 顶刚好相反。

    顾名思义,圆形底的形态特征是倒转半圆形或碟形,成交量在底部形成后,开始逐步减少。凡确认圆 形底见底形态 ,投资者宜待圆形底升势转急初期,才追买股票。

    圆形底的形成过程如下:当股价经过一段跌势后,跌势开始放缓,沽售(或沽空)股票的成交量开始 减少。每次新 低位较上一个低位距离不远。由于跌势放缓,部分先知先觉者开始趁低吸纳,收集手法普遍是有耐性 地限价收集, 淡友力量因屡攻不下而开始减少,令圆形底部的成交量亦减少。其后好友数目逐步增加,渐控制局面 ,股价才能逐 步上扬。及好友完全控制局面,市场需求转为求过于供,升势方转急。由于形成过程稍久,往往需时 数月始完成圆 形底形态。

    个别情况下,即使圆形底形成,股价并不会实时急升,仅会反复横行徘徊,这徘徊区称为“碟柄”或 “碗柄”。但 当升势既成,这“碟柄”或“碗柄”很快会被突破,股价转而向上,朝预期的上升趋势而行。


    [video=youtube;7Lq0VYE4J34]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Lq0VYE4J34[/video]
     
  7. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    simplemind,

    This is how the 5 uptrend stocks look like when they're turned upside down:

    1. SuntecREIT.
    2. CapitaComm.
    3. Starhub.
    4. Ezion Holdings.
    5. ST Engineering.

    The chart patterns showed that they're extremely overbought, except CapitaComm (ref. to the OBV indicator).

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

     
  8. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    OlamThe Gap Theory

    Olam closed with a black marubozu @ 1.67 (-0.035, -2.1%) on 4 Apr 2013.

    Immediate resistance 1.675, immediate support 1.635

    Olam rebounded to close the gap bet. 1.71 & 1.74 on 21 Mar 2012 but downtrend prevails.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

     
  9. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Innopac hit low of 0.198 high of 0.21 trading 0.198/0.199 now @ 0.199 (-0.006, -2.9%) vol. done at 114.42m shares on 3 Apr 2013 at 0455 hrs.

    The Bearish Gravestone Doji is a strong and powerful single candlestick pattern which clearly indicates that a short-term bearish trend reversal is imminent.

    [​IMG]
    InnopacBollinger Bands Squeeze

    Innopac closed unchanged with a gravestone doji @ 0.205 on 2 Apr 2013.

    Immediate support @ 0.205, strong resistance @ 0.22.

    [​IMG]

    I was tricked by the CK in ChinaMinZhong (stock already collected for a long period of time) on 25 Sep 2012, closing with a gravestone doji.

    Last 30 minutes, I threw ALL my ChinaMinZhong shares at 0.81 ...if not now I bee-tang liao...:mad5:

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Apr 3, 2013
  10. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Duke,

    Interra is trading in an upward sloping channel. It had hit the bottom @ 0.11 on 3 Jan 2012 and broke its long-term downtrend @ 0.15 on 30 Jan 2012.

    The article and chart below (in Chinese language) is to share with you the similar chart & price action pattern, relevant to Interra.

    If you couldn't understand Chinese, please don't ask me to translate in English; it's beyond my ability.

    InterraBullish Trend Reversal; interim TP S$0.50, next TP S$0.52

    [​IMG]

    止损止赢理念及方法

    掌握动态止赢止损

    止损止赢伴随操作过程始终。在分仓吸纳的原则,在形态内或通道内逢低分仓吸纳后,在形态的破位临界点需列止损操作;股价突破上扬后,上升趋势线就是止损(止赢)线;如果遇到变角度上升时,需按角度线测算未来压力位或及时修正上升趋势线为新的止损(止赢)线;当快速上扬走势走出时,可以用分时均线止赢的方法保护;临进目标位时,可以采取高点次高点比较法确定止赢位。

    由上可以看出,在买入点(区域)侧重于止损保护(预防形态破位,止损不及时形成套牢,影响心态);在上扬过程中,止损线与止赢线是一致的(好处是可以回避一定的盘中小震荡或洗盘);上升角度变线时,及时以分时均线止赢保护过度到新的上升趋势线止损(止赢)(这么做的意义在于分时均线保护变角度上升时,可以过滤掉假突破带来的回档,如果是触发了止赢,也等于是多做一次高抛低吸的短线增赢);临近目标位时,用分时均线止赢结合高点次高点保护止赢(可以确保卖在高位)。

    [​IMG]

    由此可见,掌握了动态的止赢与止损技巧,不但可以回避一些短线波动的风险,也能最大限度短线增赢。从2007年1月4日至5月28日,600321从4.50元一路飙升至13.69元,一路持有的赢利值在300%;如果加之用分时均线止赢的方法卡短线强势高点、回落趋势线后回补的方法,则短线增赢的效果超过100%,这样一来,复合赢利值就达到了400%,远远高于一轮大牛市的平均涨幅。

    通过上述的事例足以表明,如果在一轮牛市没有赢利,首先看自己的选股思路、找热点、踏节拍上是否出现了问题;其次要在技术分析的保障上查找原因,看看是否吃透了止赢止损的理念,波段操作的方法是否过关;第三就要看自己的操作纪律是否言行一致;最后就是自己的心理素质是否达到了手中有股、心中无股的境界。

    很多投资者,在赢利和亏损时均不注意总结,总把原因归咎于客观或其它不可测、不可抗因素,从来不在选股和操作手法及心理对抗上下功夫,输的一败涂地,赢的糊里糊涂,不知彼、不知己,拿不起、放不下,连自己都无法突破、无法战胜,又何谈战胜主力、战胜市场?还是那句话,股票操作,路在自己脚下,机会在自己手中,全靠自己的把握。
     
  11. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Stocks that exhibit certain chart patterns (Cup and Handle, Double Bottom and Flat Base) can lead to strong price appreciation when they breakout on strong volume.

    JB FoodsC&H formation

    JB Foods closed unchanged with a hammer @ 0.435 on 26 Mar 2013.

    Immediate resistance 0.455 immediate support 0.425.

    [​IMG]

     
  12. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Interra hit high of 0.49 low of 0.455 now 0.485/0.49. :thumbsup:

    Morning Star & Morning Doji Star both are powerful 3 candlestick chart patterns...remember UMS and the big housefly? :tt2:

     
  13. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Stocks that exhibit certain chart patterns (Cup and Handle, Double Bottom and Flat Base) can lead to strong price appreciation when they breakout on strong volume.

    JB FoodsC&H formation

    [​IMG]

     
  14. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    My personal opinion on UOB is that, it will break the S$20 resistance. If the resistance is taken out; interim TP S$21.65, next TP S$22.25.

    When I compare similar chart pattern, UOB Vs CIMB:

    UOB has all the 4 MAs pointing up (bullish), CIMB has all the 4 MAs pointing down (bearish) + a Dead Cross.

    Many attempts have been made to break the resistance @ 20.00, I was told if you keep poking the ceiling over a period of time, one fine day it will sure be poked through.

    UOBAscending Triangle formation

    UOB closed with a a bearish engulfing pattern @ 19.77 (-0.16, -0.8%) on 22 Mar 2013.

    Immediate support @ 19.60, strong resistance @ 20.00.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

     
  15. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    生意淡薄,不如賭博!

    Hot and sexy pennies/micro pennies are back! :cowboy:

    [​IMG]

    Stocks that exhibit certain chart patterns (Cup and Handle, Double Bottom and Flat Base) can lead to strong price appreciation when they breakout on strong volume.

    XpressC&H Breakout

    [​IMG]

     
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2013
  16. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Stocks that exhibit certain chart patterns (Cup and Handle, Double Bottom and Flat Base) can lead to strong price appreciation when they breakout on strong volume.

    ZELANRounding Bottom formation

    ZELAN closed with a black marubozu @ 0.295 (-0.04, -11.9%) on 22 Mar 2013.

    Immediate support 0.295, immediate resistance 0.345.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  17. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    For weak stocks trading in a downward sloping channel; rounding bottom has more upside than rounding top:

    1. SMRT (weekly) chart pattern, rounding top, if support @ 1.53 breaks; TP 1.335.

    2. Wilmar (weekly) chart pattern, rounding bottom + a handle = C&H formation, if resistance @ 3.92 breaks; TP 4.85.

    SMRT (weekly)Trading in a downward sloping channel

    [​IMG]

    Wilmar (weekly) 25 Feb 2013

    [​IMG]

    [video=youtube;GTmnN4u4Y5k]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTmnN4u4Y5k[/video]

    圆形顶/圆形底 (Rounding Top / Rounding Bottom)

    圆形顶,即碟形顶(saucer top),属于转向形态,显示大跌市即将来临,后市跌势将会很大。

    顾名思义,圆形顶的形态特征是倒转半圆形或碟形,成交量在顶部形成后,开始逐步减少。凡确认圆 形顶见顶形态 ,投资者宜尽快沽货离场,以免所持股份变成“蟹货”。

    圆形顶的形成,是股价经过一段升势后,升势开始放缓,每次新高位较上一个高位距离不远。由于升 势放缓,部分 先知先觉的投资者便撤退离场,令卖方力量增加。淡友先在圆形顶部与好友势力对抗,其后在好友数 目逐步减少下 ,淡友就得以渐渐控制局面。股价遂持续下滑,直至淡友全面控制局面后,市场需求转为供过于求, 跌势才会较急 。由于形成过程稍长,有时需数月始完成圆形顶。

    个别情况下,即使圆形顶形成,股价也不会实时急跌,仅会反复徘徊,横行发展,这徘徊区称为“碟 柄”或“碗柄 ” 。但由于跌势已成,该“碟柄”或“碗柄”一般很快便被突破,股价会转而向下,朝预期中的下跌趋 势而行。

    圆形底,又称碟形底(saucer bottom),属于见底形态,显示跌势已逆转,大升市即将来临,后市升势可以很大。其走势及趋向,与圆形 顶刚好相反。

    顾名思义,圆形底的形态特征是倒转半圆形或碟形,成交量在底部形成后,开始逐步减少。凡确认圆 形底见底形态 ,投资者宜待圆形底升势转急初期,才追买股票。

    圆形底的形成过程如下:当股价经过一段跌势后,跌势开始放缓,沽售(或沽空)股票的成交量开始 减少。每次新 低位较上一个低位距离不远。由于跌势放缓,部分先知先觉者开始趁低吸纳,收集手法普遍是有耐性 地限价收集, 淡友力量因屡攻不下而开始减少,令圆形底部的成交量亦减少。其后好友数目逐步增加,渐控制局面 ,股价才能逐 步上扬。及好友完全控制局面,市场需求转为求过于供,升势方转急。由于形成过程稍久,往往需时 数月始完成圆 形底形态。

    个别情况下,即使圆形底形成,股价并不会实时急升,仅会反复横行徘徊,这徘徊区称为“碟柄”或 “碗柄”。但 当升势既成,这“碟柄”或“碗柄”很快会被突破,股价转而向上,朝预期的上升趋势而行。
     
  18. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    nottibird,

    CapitaComm & SuntecREITDon't follow the crowd.

    ”The man who follows the crowd will usually get no further than the crowd. The man who walks alone is likely to find himself no one has ever been”. — Alan Ashley-Pitt

    Singapore REITs debt levels surge despite robust operations

    19 Mar 2013

    What could be the risks?

    According to Fitch Ratings' special report on SREITs, the availability of low-cost debt and the demand for dividend distributions in an environment of falling asset yields is leading to an increasing use of debt in Singapore Real Estate Investment Trust (SREIT) funding mixes.

    The increasing leverage of SREITs poses several risks to the sector, including refinancing risk and exposure to interest-rate shocks.

    The competition for assets that results from the use of leverage will put downward pressure on underlying asset yields and further exacerbate this trend.

    Here's more from Fitch Ratings:

    Short-Dated Lease Maturities: A structural feature of the commercial property market in Singapore is the short-dated maturity of leases.

    This feature poses a challenge to the funding options available to SREITS. SREITS have, typically, resorted to short-term borrowings to manage asset/liability mismatches.

    Interest-Rate Sensitivity: Over the past six years, SREIT funding costs have benefited from falling short-term rates. However, in a normalised interest scenario, coverage metrics appear weak.

    In the event of a sudden move to higher interest rates, the gap between asset yields and interest rates would widen owing to the much slower pace at which asset yields are prone to self-correct.

    In a rising-interest-rate environment, SRETs may be able to switch to secured borrowings or securitisation given that the majority of SREIT assets are unencumbered.

    Alternatively, SREITs may be required to resort to asset disposals or equity raisings in order to provide sufficient coverage of fixed charges

    Weak Liquidity Profiles: With reliance on short term bank debt, the liquidity profile of the SREIT sector is generally weak. Fitch Ratings expects the asset/liability duration mismatch to persist across the SREIT sector over the medium term.

    A shift towards capital market-supplied debt, which has longer duration that bank debt, is yet to gain momentum and remains a longer-term prospect.​

    [​IMG]

    Groupthink is a concept refering to faulty decision-making in a group. Groups experiencing groupthink do not consider all alternatives and they desire unanimity at the expense of quality decisions.

    Analysts rated 'BUY' on S-REITs Oct 2012 Vs S-REITs prices on 19 Mar 2013:

    1. CapitaMall Trust Closed @ S$2.09 on 19 Mar 2013 (Hit historical high @ S$2.23 on 29 Oct 2012)
    TP S$2.36 - DMG 23 Oct 2012​

    2. Ascott Residence Trust Closed @ S$1.355 on 19 Mar 2013 (Hit historical high @ S$1.385 on 12 Mar 2013)
    TP S$1.37 - OCBC 24 Oct 2012​

    3. CapitaCommercial Trust Closed @ S$1.585 on 19 Mar 2013 (Hit historical high @ S$1.675 on 1st Feb 2013)
    TP S$1.66 - DB
    TP S$1.73 - CIMB​

    4. Suntec REIT Closed @ S$1.725 on 19 Mar 2013 (Hit historical high @ S$1.795 on 12 Mar 2013)
    TP S$1.66 - Maybank Kim Eng 10 Oct 2012
    TP S$1.64 - DB
    TP S$1.79 - CIMB
    Upgraded To Buy - DMG​

    5. CapitaMalls Asia Closed @ S$2.10 on 19 Mar 2013 (Hit historical high @ S$2.26 on 4 Feb 2013)
    TP S$1.80 - CIMB
    TP S$2.15 - Jefferies​

    6. Frasers Commercial Trust Closed at historical high @ S$1.385 on 19 Mar 2013
    TP S$1.37 - CIMB
    TP S$1.31 - OCBC 10 Oct 2012​

    7. Mapletree Comm Trust Closed @ S$1.305 on 19 Mar 2013 (Hit historical high @ 1.445 on 15 Feb 2013)
    TP S$1.33 - DB
    TP $1.39 - CIMB​

    Why We Buy High and Sell Low — Based on TA, chart pattern on 21 Nov 2012 (ref. individual charts below), many SREITs prices had almost hit the peak then; retail investors would have been better off now 19 Mar 2013 if they did the reverse, i.e. SELL instead of BUY/Averaging down SREITs based on Analysts' reviews in Oct 2012.

    Birds of the feather flock together

    CapitaMall TrustTrading extremely extended from its 20d SMA

    [​IMG]

    Ascott Residence TrustTrading extremely extended from its 20d SMA

    [​IMG]

    CapitaCommercial TrustTrading extremely extended from its 20d SMA

    [​IMG]

    SuntecReitTrading extremely extended from its 20d SMA

    [​IMG]

    CapMallAsiaTrading extremely extended from its 20d SMA

    [​IMG]

    FrasersCommTrading extremely extended from its 20d SMA

    [​IMG]

    Mapletree Comm TrustTrading extremely extended from its 20d SMA

    [​IMG]

     
  19. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    發發發,

    Rounding Top/Rounding Bottom — Ang Moh's version and Deng Lang's version

    I posted both versions earlier on DBS's chart dated 6 Nov 2012.

    I see the Deng Lang's version is more applicable to CapitaComm's chart now, mid-Mar 2013.

     
  20. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    CapitaCommBearish rounded top breakout @ 1.595; expect more downside than upside

    CapitaComm hit high of 1.585 low of 1.54, now 1.555/1.56; last done 1.555 (-0.03, -1.9%) 18 Mar 2013 1135 hrs.

    Early bearish signals were obvious with prices forming a LL & LH:

    1. On 13 Mar, a long black marubozu closing @ 1.63 was a confirmation of a bearish symmetrical triangle breakout.
    (Dead Cross, 20d EMA crossed 10d EMA).

    2. On 14 Mar, a long black marubozu closing @ 1.615 was a decisive signal/confirmation to short, not long.

    3. On 15 Mar, a three black crows closing @ 1.585 was a confirmation of a bearish rounded top breakout.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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